Research On The Impact Of Real Estate Development Investment On Industrial Green Total Factor Productivity

Faced with the complicated domestic and international situation,China is also and must change from pursuing high-speed growth to pursuing high-quality development.As the leading and foundation of the national economy,industry is not only the main body of productivity improvement,but also the main body of resource consumption and pollution emission.Therefore,high-quality industrial development is the core and key to the high-quality development of the economy.It is of great practical significance to explore the realization path of high-quality industrial development.China's urbanization level is not only far behind the developed countries,but also seriously lags behind China's industrialization and economic development.China needs to further promote the urbanization process.As the basic means of creating urban physical space as an urbanized carrier,real estate development investment is indispensable.At the same time,housing prices have become a key factor hindering the process of urbanization in China.However,over the years,the effectiveness of real estate regulation and control policies on the demand side has been insufficient.The focus of China's real estate market reform should be shifted to the supply side,focusing on the regulation of real estate development investment.However,if the “pick-to-price” real estate supply strategy is likely to accumulate greater risks.Since “promoting highquality development is the fundamental requirement for determining development ideas,formulating economic policies,and implementing macro-control in the current and future period”,and high-quality industrial development is the core and key to highquality economic development,therefore,the development of China's real estate development and investment activities should aim at promoting high-quality industrial development.To optimize the development of China's real estate development with the goal of high-quality industrial development,we must be able to study the impact of real estate development investment on high-quality industrial development from multiple perspectives.Under the guidance of the above background and significance,this paper firstly measures and analyzes the industrial green total factor productivity of cities above prefecture level in China from 2004 to 2016,in order to understand the status quo and trend of China's industrial high-quality development level,and provide a data foundation for metrology analysis.Then through systematically sorting out and summarizing the impact of real estate development investment on industrial green total factor productivity,we can draw the following conclusions: Real estate development investment can promote the growth of industrial green total factor productivity through population agglomeration effect,expansion of physical space and improvement of infrastructure effects,and the economies of scale and competition effects brought about by the expansion of aggregate demand.Real estate development investment can hinder the growth of industrial green total factor productivity through the deterioration effect of the local industrial structure,the "human capital" crowding effect on industrial development,the "financial resources" crowding effect on industrial development,and the bias effect of real estate investment in industrial enterprises.These seven effects are different in different real estate development investments and different types of cities.The analysis framework provides a unified analysis platform for studying the impact of real estate development investment on industrial green total factor productivity from multiple perspectives.Based on the above analysis platform and data foundation,this paper firstly uses the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis from the perspective of urban homogeneity to study the overall impact of real estate development investment on industrial green total factor productivity,and the nonlinear characteristics of the influence and the spatial spillover effect.Then,based on the heterogeneity of the four types cities,such as whether it is central city,population density growth,city size,and industrial high-quality development level,use the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to study the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of real estate development investment on industrial green total factor productivity.Through the above measurement of industrial green total factor productivity and the study of the impact of real estate development investment on industrial green total factor productivity from multiple perspectives,the core conclusions and policy implications are as follows:China's land supply policy,which was opened in 2003 and tends to the Midwest,has indeed brought about the policy effect of increasing the growth rate of industrial green total factor productivity in the central and western regions,but this effect is rapidly declining over time;the tightened land policy coupled with changes in the international situation has hindered the growth of industrial green total factor productivity in the eastern region,however,the eastern region has alleviated this hindrance by virtue of its good location advantages,strong industrial base and the scale advantages brought about by the development since the reform and opening up.Therefore,the land supply policy that tends to the Midwest may not be worth the loss,and the overall growth rate of China's industrial green total factor productivity is lowered.There are two types of cities in China today: The first category is that cities with more real estate development investment than their industrial development;the second category is that compared with their industrial development and population agglomeration,real estate development investment is less in slower cities,the “hunger supply” of real estate has triggered serious speculation(or investment).The widespread existence of these two types of cities has overall reduced the impact of real estate development investment on industrial green total factor productivity,resulting in a negative impact.When real estate development investment is in a high-intensity interval,its impact on industrial green total factor productivity is much lower than in the medium-intensity interval.When the general city coexists with the above-mentioned second-class cities,resulting in real estate development investment in the low-intensity interval,its impact on industrial green total factor productivity is not statistically significant.Industrial green total factor productivity growth rate has a positive spatial dependence,which provides a basis for promoting high-quality industrial development based on urban agglomeration.There is a negative spatial spillover effect on the impact of real estate development investment on industrial green total factor productivity.Compared with non-central cities,central cities can promote the growth of industrial green total factor productivity.Cities with fast population density growth will have a greater impact on industrial green total factor productivity than cities with slow population growth.Compared with medium-sized cities,real estate development investment in large cities has a greater impact on industrial green total factor productivity.Ordinary small cities coexist with small cities with obvious characteristics of “localized economy”,which has caused the impact of real estate development investment in small cities on industrial green total factor productivity to be statistically insignificant.The higher the level of industrial high-quality development,the greater the impact of real estate development investment on industrial green total factor productivity.In summary,the key issue facing China's real estate development investment is structural problems.By optimizing the spatial layout of real estate development investment and selecting appropriate strength,we can promote the high-quality development of China's industry.Specifically,in the regional scope,relying on the urban agglomeration,the investment in real estate development should be more inclined to the central city,and the city with the largest regional total effect on the impact of real estate development investment on industrial green total factor productivity should be inclined.On the national,the choice of the three regions of the East,the Central and the West,should be biased to cities in the eastern region;The choice of different city scales should be biased towards large cities,while taking into account the "localized economy" characteristics of small and medium-sized cities;From the perspective of population inflows,should be biased towards cities with rapid population density growth;From the perspective of industrial high-quality development level,it should be biased towards cities with high industrial high-quality development level.But no matter which kind of city,the strength of real estate development investment can not be too large,but it is also strictly prohibited to "starvation supply",so that real estate development investment should be maintained at a moderate level.