Green Total Factor Productivity,Industrial Agglomeration And Industrial Export

By collating the Chinese industrial database comprehensively,using the EBM-ML method,this paper calculates the industrial Green Total Factor Productivity of 30 provinces and 19 polluting industries in China from 2005 to 2015,and constructs corresponding Industrial Agglomerations by location quotient and space Gini coefficient method respectively.Indicators,and on this basis,identify the relationship between Green Total Factor Productivity,Industrial Agglomeration and Industrial Exports.The study found that Green Total Factor Productivity at the tatal sample level and sub-regional sample level can enhance the positive effect of Industrial Agglomeration on Exports.At the polluting industry level,it can reduce the negative impact of the export because of the high environmental regulations cost due to the pollution agglomeration.In the past four decades,China has relied on the export comparative advantage brought by the labor factor endowment,and its export scale has outstanding performance in the international trade market,making it the world's largest exporter.However,with the changes in the “wind vane” of the domestic labor market,the emergence of population aging,insufficient labor supply,and reduced labor price advantage,the “demographic dividend” brought to the export by the labor factor endowment is gradually disappearing.On the other hand,China's exports are vulnerable to external factors.For example,the global economic downturn caused by the US economic crisis has caused Chinese exporters to face the pressure of weak external demand(Chen Xiaohua and Liu Hui,2014).The Sino-US trade war has also made China a short-term.The export order index has declined.Against this background,in order to maintain sustained and stable development of exports,China must change its driving force and seek new impetus to promote export development.The new trade theory believes that the basis of trade between the two countries is not necessarily the price comparative advantage brought about by technological differences or factor endowments,but also the decline in the average production cost of individual products brought about by economies of scale.However,the ability to absorb the externalities brought about by economies of scale also depends on its current level of productivity.At present,China's industrial layout presents obvious characteristics of geographical agglomeration.However,whether the existing industrial agglomeration pattern can promote China's export development to the greatest extent is unknown,and it is also affected by the current productivity level of the region or industry.Therefore,under the background that the “demographic dividend” is gradually disappearing and the foreign trade environment is full of instability,combined with the differences in Green Total Factor Productivity of various regions and industries to study the impact of Industrial Agglomeration on exports is full of significance maintaining sustained and stable development of exports in the future.Based on the review of related literatures at home and abroad,this paper analyzes the Industrial Agglomeration levels and the Green Tator Factor Productivity of 30 provinces and 19 polluting industries in China from 2005 to 2015 by reviewing the basic data provided by each statistical yearbook during the survey period.For the first time,Green Total Factor Productivity,Industrial Agglomeration and Exports were included in the same analytical framework.And for the first time,the impact of Green Total Factor Productivity on the relationship of Industrial Agglomeration and Export was examined,(we call this impact is “adjustment effect”).The study has following conclusions: Firstly,in terms of provinces,the industrial agglomeration of the eastern provinces is higher than that of the central and western regions.However,in recent years,with the industrial transfer and acceptance,the central region has a tendency to catch up with the eastern region.Secondly,the Green Total Factor Productivity of each provinces is on the rise on the overall level,and the main driving force comes from technological progress.The Green Total Factor Productivity of eastern cities represented by Shanghai is significantly higher than that of the western region represented by Xinjiang.Thirdly,Industrial Agglomeration can promote regional exports significantly,but the role of the polluting industry is significantly negative.On the one hand,industrial agglomeration at the regional level can reduce various types of costs of exports to promote exports through scale effects.On the other hand,after the concentration of polluting industries,they will be concentrated by government,and will bear more stringent Harsh environmental regulation,rising costs in the short term,and it is not conducive to exports;Fourthly,Green Total Factor Productivity has a positive adjustment effect on the relationship between Industrial Agglomeration and Export at the regional and polluting industries,that is,the industrial agglomeration of high Total Factor Productivity regional has a greater effect on exports,and the industrial agglomeration of high Green Total Factor Productivity PollutingIndustry has a smaller negative effect of Exports.Combined with China's current Industrial Green Total Factor Productivity,Industrial Agglomeration and Export development status,the policy implications of this paper through theoretical analysis and empirical research are as follows: First is to accelerate the concentration of regional superior clean industries,and guide cluster enterprises to develop exports;second is to encourage enterprises in the agglomeration areas and agglomeration industries to accelerate technological innovation through support High-tech talents to exchange and study abroad,and improve their own Green Total Factor Productivity as soon as possible,and less or even eliminate the negative externalities brought about by the concentration of polluting industries;And third is to accelerate the rate of industrial transformation and upgrading of the polluting industry,reducing dependence on the general labor force;Fourth is to improveing the quality of laborers and speeding up the cultivation of talents by lowering the threshold of higher education,improving education and quality;Fifth is to stepping up environmental regulation and implementing green export development strategy,to exert the effect of environmental regulation on the technological innovation of exports.