| Looking back on the development process of service industry in the past 40 years of reform and opening up in China,we have achieved great success in speed and scale.Service industry has developed from the "germinating industry" in the early stage of reform and opening up to the largest industry in the national economy.It has gone through the stages of "reform and development","agglomeration and development" and the advanced stage of development guided by people's livelihood and high quality.However,on the one hand,as a result of the co-evolution of service industry agglomeration and urban productivity in China,there are still some problems in the quality of service industry agglomeration and industrial competitiveness,which also arouses our realistic reflection on the innovative role in the co-evolution of service industry agglomeration and urban productivity.On the other hand,there are always disputes about the development model of service industry in academic circles.Some scholars advocate the "agglomeration scale dominant theory",while others agree with the "inflection point theory".Based on the above background and reality,this paper focuses on two issues: one is the mechanism of the co-evolution of service industry agglomeration and urban productivity;the other is the empirical test of the relationship between service industry agglomeration and urban productivity based on econometric model.Based on this,the paper responds to the disputes in academic circles and puts forward feasible countermeasures and suggestions for the high-quality development of service industry.Specifically,this paper does the following work around the research theme:Firstly,with the help of evolutionary analysis paradigm of evolutionary economics,the theoretical framework of co-evolution of service industry agglomeration and urban productivity is constructed,and the co-evolution relationship between them is deduced and analyzed theoretically.The study finds that the evolution between service industry agglomeration and urban productivity involves the interaction and correlation of micro,meso and macro levels,and has the characteristics of multi-level,multi-stage and dynamic.The transmission mechanism of innovation runs through all levels and the whole process of evolution,and endogenously promotes the transition of system evolution from primary stage to advanced stage.Secondly,it makes a statistical analysis of service industry agglomeration and urban productivity.The service industry agglomeration degree and urban productivity level at the urban level and their evolution trend are calculated respectively.The results show that the service industry has been in the industry advantage throughout the country,and has not changed significantly with time in the sample period,showing a stable agglomeration development trend on the whole.In terms of sub-industry,public service industry is in the industry advantage and agglomeration degree is higher,while producer service industry and consumer service industry are in the industry disadvantage and agglomeration degree is relatively low.Regarding the urban productivity,whether from the national or sub-regional perspective,the average value of urban productivity shows a downward trend.Among them,the eastern region has the highest urban productivity,followed by the central region,and the western region has the lowest urban productivity.Based on the analysis of spatial-temporal transition,the results show that the spatial distribution of service industry agglomeration and urban productivity shows strong stability.Thirdly,the empirical test of the econometric model shows that the agglomeration of services has a significant role in promoting urban productivity.After controlling the level of innovation,the coefficient of service industry agglomeration is still significantly positive,and the level of innovation significantly improves urban productivity.After introducing the second term of service agglomeration degree,it is proved that the effect of service agglomeration on urban productivity is inverted Ushaped.The results are still robust whether the variables and sample ranges are changed or endogenously processed.The results of intermediary effect test show that the level of urban innovation is an important channel for service industry agglomeration to promote urban productivity.Taking spatial factors into account,it is found that the productivity of local cities is mainly due to the agglomeration of local service industries,and the agglomeration of neighboring urban services can also have a certain spatial spillover effect on local cities through spatial spillover channels such as knowledge and technology.Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the agglomeration of services in eastern,central and western regions has a significant positive impact on urban productivity.However,for urban innovation,only the level of urban innovation in the eastern region has a significant positive impact on urban productivity;the concentration of services in coastal and non-coastal cities is significantly positive,but the concentration of services in non-coastal cities has a greater impact on urban productivity;the agglomeration of services in non-provincial capitals has significantly increased urban productivity,while the agglomeration of services in provincial capitals has significantly increased urban productivity.The effect of the agglomeration of public services on urban productivity is the greatest,followed by producer services and consumer services.Finally,in order to have a more comprehensive understanding of the inverted "U" relationship between service industry agglomeration and urban productivity,the "inflection point" problem is further tested by industry and region.In terms of different industries,there is a "inflection point" between the agglomeration of producer services and public services and urban productivity,with inflection points of 1.3952 and 1.5548 respectively.In terms of different regions,only the "inflection point" exists between the agglomeration of services and urban productivity in the central and Western regions,with inflection points of 1.1978 and 1.3146 respectively.Based on the above research,some policy suggestions are putting forward. |
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