Research On Early Warning Mechanism For Poverty Return

It is clearly stated in the Report of the Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China that we should resolutely win the battle against poverty to ensure that by 2020,the poor population in rural areas will be lifted out of poverty by the current standards and that poor counties will remove their reputation of“poverty” by achieving the goal of “alleviating the true poverty” through solving the overall regional poverty.Under the present circumstances when China’s battle against poverty has entered the final decisive stage,it is essential to establish a more feasible warming mechanism against poverty returning by making an innovation in the relevant warming mechanisms in response to the poverty returning that has arisen among part of poor population in the process of targeted poverty alleviation,which will ensure the efficiency as well as the quality of poverty alleviation.On the basis of extensive and in-depth investigations,this paper firstly makes a comprehensive and systematic analysis of poverty retuning in the poor population,which involves various factors in light of poverty management theory,public crisis management theory,system theory and engineering management theory;secondly,it makes an explanation of the generating mechanism of poverty returning based on accident causality chain theory and catastrophe theory;then it makes an analysis of the evolution process of poverty returning by using entropy theory and evolutionary economics theory;lastly,it makes an innovation in the relevant warming mechanisms in light of meteorological forecast theory and crisis management theory in public management to construct a warning mechanism against poverty returning,in which a warning index system is set up,the warming levels are determined and the production and life related index of poverty-free households can be monitored and analyzed by choosing a proper assessment method,thereby to prevent poverty returning from the onset with effective countermeasures and ensure the successful implementation of the national strategy of targeted poverty alleviation and help-the-poor program.This paper consists of seven chapters.Chapter One states the research questions and significance of the research,makes a literature review of the related research both in China and abroad,defines the key terms and points out the research tasks,research design and research methodology.Chapter Two approaches the related theoretical basis to this thesis,including capacity poverty,human capital,space poverty,rights poverty system theory related to poverty governing theory as well as the generating mechanism theory of poverty returning such as accident causality chain theory and catastrophe theory.Chapter Three systematically studies the causes,generating mechanisms and evolutionary process of poverty returning with the normative research method,arriving at the conclusion that causes for poverty returning involve institution-and-policy-based causes,resource-environment-based causes,disaster-risk-based causes,ability-habit-based causes and so on;it also explains with relevant theories the generating mechanism and evolutionary process of poverty returning derived from different causes.All of these constitute the basis of the construction of the warning mechanism against poverty returning.Chapter Four constructs the overall framework of the warning mechanism against poverty returning with the principles and methods of system theory,which consists of four supporting conditions and an operating mode.The former includes the organizational structure,information management,emergency management and security conditions;the latter involves the intervention subjects,intervention objects,large databases,intervention means and warning standards.Chapter Five concerns the design and assessment of the warming mechanism.Based on the construction of the warming mechanism against poverty returning,an warming indicator system with source indicators and sign indicators is established in light of the public crisis management theory;the warming levels are determined in light of meteorological forecast theory to set up standards for the implementation of the warming mechanism against poverty returning;the unascertained measure in applied mathematics and BP artificial neural network model are adopted as the assessment methods of the warning system,with which some samples are chosen to be assessed.Chapter Six studies the operation countermeasures of the warning mechanism against poverty returning,including the organizational management system for the effective operation of the mechanism,strict power and responsibility mechanism,transparent information disclosure system and effective guarantee conditions.Chapter seven makes a summary and examines the prospect of the related research.It is found in the study that: first,poverty returning is caused by a combination of many factors and occurs systematically and sometimes it can be caused by an emergency;second,the warning mechanism against poverty returning ensures a scientific and effective warning by preventing poverty returning with a fuse mechanism in accordance to the identification of the warning signs and sources;third,given the fact that targeted poverty alleviation has achieved a remarkable effect,yet there still arise varying risks of poverty returning in the poverty-free households,policies and measures should be made based on the distinctive features of the poverty returning population to intervene and improve the accuracy of early preventionThe main innovations of this paper are as follows:Firstly,While focusing on poverty alleviation and poverty alleviation,this paper puts forward the concepts of poverty alleviation early warning and poverty alleviation early warning mechanism,and constructs a poverty alleviation early warning mechanism.It introduces the operational basis and main body of the poverty alleviation early warning mechanism,expounds its operational thinking and process,preliminarily designs a poverty alleviation early warning index system,and divides the early warning system.The early warning evaluation is carried out by using the method of fuzzy evaluation,and the samples are selected for verification.To a certain extent,this paper enriches the theory of poverty control in China,provides a theoretical basis for scholars to study the early warning of poverty return in depth,has a forward-looking and predictive understanding of the problem of poverty return in China,and has a very important theoretical significance for the study of poverty control in China.Secondly,The present research makes trial and comprehensive use of ability poverty theory,human capital theory,spatial poverty theory and right poverty theory to analyze the generating mechanism of poverty alleviation causes,which provides a theoretical basis for the construction of index system for warning against poverty alleviation;it explains the generating mechanism of poverty returning with accident causal chain theory of engineering management and mutation theory of applied mathematics as well as analyses the evolutionary process of poverty returning with the system entropy theory and the evolutionary economics theory,which provides a theoretical basis for the construction and operation of the warning mechanism against poverty returning;it constructs the warning mechanism against povertyreturning with the principles and methods of system theory,which involves the supporting elements and operational mode;it establishes the indicator system of the warning mechanism against poverty returning and sets up the standards for the warning levels with the relevant principles and methods of public crisis management and meteorology;guiding the formulation and implementation of Poverty Alleviation Policies with public policy theory;it also adopts the unascertained measure model in applied mathematics and BP artificial neural network model in the warning assessment.Thirdly,The present research makes two classifications of the poverty returning population and intervention policies in terms of targeted matching;it also constructs the corresponding models,on which it establishes the matching model between the poverty returning population and the intervention polices.On the basis of the matching model,it designs the targeted matching table between the poverty returning population and the intervention policies,which provides theoretical reference for intervention and interruption of returning poverty risks.