Assessment Of Poverty Reduction Effect And Fine Spatial Scale Income Identification In Henan Province Under The Background Of Targeted Poverty Alleviation

Poverty is a stubborn disease of human society,is the major challenges and problems that all countries in the world need to face.Since the founding of New China,China has continuously improved its poverty alleviation and development strategy and policy system for many years,especially the proposal of the targeted poverty alleviation strategy,which has made remarkable achievements in China’s anti-poverty work.However,due to the fact that the causes of poverty are very diverse and complex,poverty reduction is bound to be a long-term and arduous process,and China’s poverty problem will never stop by " taking off the hat".Henan is a province with a large population,agriculture and grain production in China,with a deep degree of poverty and a large number of rural poor people.It is a typical research area of poverty integrating mountains,plains and hills,and is the epitome of the Yellow River Basin and even China’s poor areas.Under the background of the current five-year transition period of consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation and promoting the effective connection between rural revitalization,evaluate the poverty reduction effect of the targeted poverty alleviation policy in Henan Province,and identify the income of poor groups at a fine spatial scale,it is of great significance to further optimize the poverty alleviation policy scheme,reasonably allocate the limited poverty alleviation policy resources to comprehensively promote the smooth transition of rural revitalization,prevent the risk of farmers returning to poverty due to capacity poverty,and establish a long-term mechanism to solve relative poverty.Firstly,based on the survey data of the third-party evaluation questionnaire on the effectiveness of targeted poverty alleviation in 2019,this paper takes 1216 poor households in 39 sampling villages in Luoning County and Song County of Henan Province as the research object,the time to get out of poverty of registered poor households was taken as a proxy variable to measure the poverty reduction effect of the three types of poverty alleviation policies,and uses the multi-level modelling to systematically model the two spatial scales of "farmer-village" at the same time,the Shapley values method based on game theory is introduced into the multi-level modelling,then the scale difference characteristics of the time to get out of poverty,i.e.,poverty reduction effect,are discussed,and analyze the impact and relative contribution of policies and other factor sets on the time to get out of poverty.Secondly,based on the 11617 socio-economic questionnaire data of 309 sampled villages in the province,the per capita net income at the village level is estimated by using the multi-level modelling,and then it is regressed with the multi-source data such as night light to construct a fine spatial scale income identification model,in order to use the model relationship to identify and measure the per capita net income at the larger township scale.The main conclusions are as follows:1.The characteristics of scale difference in the time to get out of poverty based on multi-level modelling show that:(1)about 21% of the difference in the time to get out of poverty can be explained by the differences between villages,while the group differences among farmers account for about 79%,indicating that the differences in the time to get out of poverty,i.e.poverty reduction effect,are more concentrated on the scale of farmers.(2)By constructing the random slope model of the three types of poverty alleviation policies and comparing them with the random effect,the variance analysis shows that the implementation effect of the three types of targeted poverty alleviation policies of industry,finance and transfer employment in the study area is good,and the spatial difference of poverty reduction effect at the village level is small.2.Analysis of the impact and contribution of policies and other factor sets on the time to get out of poverty:(1)The scale and quality of labor force in the household attributes of farmers significantly affect the time to get out of poverty.It can be seen that the insufficient level of human capital and the poor development ability of the main body are the important reasons for poverty.(2)Among the three types of poverty alleviation policies,the employment transfer poverty alleviation policy encourages poor households to find employment and start businesses,which significantly accelerates the poverty alleviation process of poor households.The poverty reduction effect of industrial poverty alleviation policy is not obvious,there may be some problems,such as unreasonable selection of local industrial types,facing large market risks,and elite capture caused by insufficient targeting accuracy.The development of industrial poverty alleviation depends on the guarantee of capital and technology,which will also lead to the lack of endogenous power of financial poverty alleviation policies in the process of poverty alleviation.(3)The calculation results based on the expanded Shapley values method show that the interpretation ability of the village level attribute factor set and the family attribute factor set of the poor households to the time to get out of poverty is 50.2% and 40.7%respectively,that is,the areas with obvious comprehensive village-level attribute advantages have better poverty reduction effect,and the time needed to get rid of poverty tends to be shorter.Although the targeted poverty alleviation policy variable group makes a small contribution to the time to get out of poverty,accounting for only 9.1%,it has greatly affected and improved the attributes of farmers and village level attribute set,thus speeding up the process of shake off poverty.3.By constructing a fine spatial scale income recognition model,it can be seen that the brightness value of night lights can reflect the intensity of regional economic activities to a certain extent;the improvement of traffic accessibility conditions is conducive to the increase of per capita net income.Among the land use types,water area has a negative impact on the improvement of per capita net income,the reason may be that the population in the study area generally has poor awareness of local water ecological protection and development,and there are problems such as low utilization rate of water economic value and environmental pollution.Enterprises in the secondary industry can have a strong driving effect on the improvement of per capita net income by increasing the employment of the local population.