Research On The Multidimensional Vulnerability To Poverty In Rural Of China

Poverty is a persistent phenomenon in the development of human society and a focus of research by scholars from all over the world.Traditional poverty measurement and poverty reduction policies are both ex post facto interventions,while poverty vulnerability is a form of ex ante poverty.It is found that most of the existing studies are based on income poverty research on poverty vulnerability,and few study on multi-dimensional poverty vulnerability.More and more studies show that income poverty is too narrow to describe poverty in other dimensions,so the description of poverty vulnerability based on the vulnerability of income poverty is also not comprehensive.Therefore,the study in this paper effectively enriches the theories and methods of poverty vulnerability,which is of great practical significance for effectively positioning the group that will fall into multidimensional poverty and multidimensional poverty worsening as well as poverty prevention.This paper takes the family as the basic unit.In the research process,literature research,mathematical statistics,statistical analysis and econometric model are mainly used.The specific measures are as follows:A large number of literatures were collected and the corresponding multi-dimensional poverty vulnerability measurement method was constructed by referring to the one-dimensional poverty vulnerability measurement method based on poverty dynamics,expected poverty and expected poverty.In this process,AF double boundary measurement method and three-stage generalized least square method were used,and then shapley decomposition of multidimensional poverty vulnerability was carried out.Finally,the panel data and econometric model are used to analyze the influencing factors of multidimensional poverty vulnerability.This paper is divided into five parts and six chapters according to the logical thinking from poverty vulnerability measurement to decomposition to intervention.Part 1 is the proposition of the problem,the determination of the research perspective and the definition of related concepts,including the first chapter of the paper.Firstly,the research background of this paper is briefly introduced,the research questions are put forward,and the research significance is expounded.Secondly,by reviewing the existing literature on poverty vulnerability,it is found that China's research on poverty vulnerability is still in the exploratory stage.Most of the research on poverty vulnerability is the application of foreign research methods in China,while the research on multi-dimensional poverty vulnerability is relatively scarce.Thirdly,the research methods,data sources and research contents of this paper are explained,and the technical roadmap of this paper is constructed.Finally,the concept of poverty vulnerability is defined.Part 2 is the poverty vulnerability measurement stage,including chapter 2 and chapter 3.The third chapter gives the framework of multi-dimensional poverty vulnerability measurement.Firstly,the single-dimensional poverty vulnerability measurement method is given based on poverty dynamics,expected poverty and expected poverty,and then it is extended to the multi-dimensional poverty vulnerability measurement one by one.Chapter four empirically measures the multidimensional poverty vulnerability of families.Firstly,data sources and variable selection of multidimensional poverty vulnerability were explained,and descriptive analysis was given to find that the poverty situation of rural households in each dimension was improved year by year.Then,according to the framework of multidimensional poverty vulnerability measurement in chapter 3,the concrete empirical results of multidimensional poverty vulnerability are given.It was found that under the three methods,the higher the poverty line setting was,the higher the vulnerable rate of family poverty,that is,the higher the proportion of families more likely to fall into multi-dimensional poverty in the future.At the same time,with the method of multi-dimensional poverty vulnerability measurement of expected poverty,the differences of multi-dimensional poverty vulnerability of families in different regions,family size,age of head of households,gender of head of households and education years of head of households were analyzed.It was found that households headed by Henan,Guizhou,single families,elderly people over 60 years old,female heads of households and households headed without education were more likely to fall into multi-dimensional poverty in the future.Finally,the three methods are compared.It is found that the results of the three methods are similar,but there are differences.Part 3 is the decomposition of poverty vulnerability,including chapter 4.Firstly,a visual description of the root cause of poverty vulnerability is given based on the equal poverty vulnerability line and histogram,and the necessity of the decomposition of poverty vulnerability is explained.Secondly,the complete decomposition method based on Shapley decomposition and the factor decomposition methods based on principal component analysis are given.Finally the application of decomposition methods,namely to rural households,regional differences and the characteristics of each family poverty vulnerability to decompose,and based on principal component analysis to the families of poverty vulnerability factor decomposition,decomposition of poverty vulnerability in pairs contributions from big to small five parts:family income level,family pressure,family structure,family,health,family capital.Part 4 is the stage of influencing factors of poverty vulnerability,including chapter 5.Firstly,the index of poverty vulnerability was screened.And then to the vulnerability and poverty is fragile,and persistent poverty vulnerability and temporary poverty in poor vulnerable and into the fragile and exit fragile family characteristics of descriptive statistical analysis,found that poor family characteristics show the fragile:per capita income,assets,number of mu of arable land and the proportion of medical insurance,the family work less than the highest level of education,householder,head of the household older.Finally,an econometric model is established to analyze the factors influencing the vulnerability of rural poverty in China.Part 5 is the conclusion and recommendation stage,including chapter 6.The following conclusions are drawn:the multidimensional vulnerable methods of poverty calculated in this paper all have certain explanatory power.Three methods to measure multidimensional poverty vulnerability were compared,and the values of some parameters and methods to measure multidimensional poverty vulnerability were determined.Multidimensional poverty can also predict ex ante poverty to some extent.Education is an implicit and long-term factor affecting poverty vulnerability.Families that are single,headed by the elderly or women are more likely to be poor and destitute.Disease is an underlying factor affecting the vulnerability of poverty.Guizhou,Guangxi and Henan have the highest vulnerability to poverty.Multidimensional vulnerability to poverty is inversely related to regional economic development.Finally,the paper gives some advice on poverty alleviation:poverty identification is carried out by combining poverty vulnerability with poverty;Improve and protect the nine-year obligation education,prevent poverty intergenerational transmission;We will improve the social security system and ensure the basic livelihood of special poor groups.We will promote equal access to basic medical services and prevent poverty caused by illness in families.We will accelerate economic development in poor areas and pay close attention to Guizhou,Guangxi and Henan regions.