| The Three Gorges Project that involves millions of migrants is a major project of developmental migration in China.In the first phase,the main focus is on moving out,stabilizing,and securing basic livelihoods;in the second phase,through the implementation of follow-up support policies and projects,the sustainable livelihood system of millions of migrants is reconstructed and local stability and prosperity is achieved.In the context of sharing development fruits and the promoting common prosperity,a systematic review and evaluation of the livelihood support policies for urban migrants are a necessary means to improve the effectiveness of the policies.It is important for optimizing China's developmental migration policy mechanism and improving the design of follow-up support policies.The evaluation of livelihood support policies involves theories related to sustainable livelihoods,developmental migration,and public policy evaluation.Although useful explorations have been conducted,the theoretical framework of evaluation has not been systematically constructed,let alone the evaluation of the migration support paths and the effects in Three Gorges towns.Based on this,this paper systematically compares the relevant theories and literature at home and abroad,constructs evaluation theories and models,and conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the changes in migrant livelihood support policies and their implementation effects from both micro and macro perspectives,so as to provide theoretical support for optimizing the livelihood support policies for migrants in reservoir towns and more effectively promoting the sustainable development of developmental migrants of major water conservancy projects.This paper develops the research from the following four aspects.The first part is theoretical analysis and framework design.Firstly,a systematic review of theories and literature is conducted.Secondly,we analyze the basic principles,scientific paths,and mechanisms of policy support,and clarify that the essence of developmental migration policy is to cultivate livelihood capital and restore livelihood capacity,and that livelihood support policy plays the role of livelihood risk management and livelihood capacity rebuilding and enhancement in effectively interrupting livelihood vulnerability.Thirdly,a dual evaluation framework based on"policy value judgment and policy goal achievement" is constructed,forming a multidimensional and multi-perspective policy evaluation framework with subjective and objective support.The second part is the study of the changes and overall effects of livelihood support policies.Firstly,we review the relocation and resettlement patterns,outline the scale,spatial distribution,and structure of urbanized resettlement.Secondly,the livelihood support policy for urban migrants is divided into the relocation and resettlement phase(1992-2009)and the Three Gorges follow-up phase(2011-present),and the policy origin,evolution and implementation of the two phases are systematically analyzed.Thirdly,the changes and improvements in livelihood environment,disposable income,production and living conditions after the implementation of the policy are examined as a whole.The third part is the empirical study of the livelihood support policy.From five dimensions under micro and macro perspectives,through analyzing research data and macro statistics,and multi-method embedding,we focus on the evaluation of the livelihood support policy in the follow-up phase of Three Gorges migration project and obtain the following conclusions.Firstly,based on the evaluation of urban migrants on livelihood capacity enhancement,the results show that livelihood support policies significantly suppress individual livelihood vulnerability,but there is still room for optimization.It's worth mentioning that physical living conditions,living environment,infrastructure,and transportation conditions are significantly improved,and disposable income is greatly increased.But financial subsidies or credit services are less increased and employability is relatively weak.There is room for further improvement of social capital and livelihood strategy improvement.The second is the satisfaction evaluation based on statistical and regression analysis methods.The results show that the overall evaluation of urban migrants' policy support is close to the level of "more satisfied",among which,the satisfaction of physical condition support policy and comprehensive support in resettlement areas is higher.The satisfaction level of financial subsidies and credit service policy,skills training policy,employment and entrepreneurship policy is still somewhat different from migrants' expectation.The descriptive statistical analysis by group showed that there were differences in satisfaction evaluations results under different samples of gender,age,and immigrant origin subgroups.The enhancement of livelihood capital has a significant positive effect on policy satisfaction evaluation,but the effect is inconsistent and the degree of influence varies.The coefficient of influence is large for the enhancement of social capital and physical capital.Among the individual characteristics variables,gender has a positive effect on satisfaction evaluation,while age and total household demographic characteristics have a negative effect,but both do not pass the significance test.Thirdly,based on the objective realization evaluation of policy objectives based on the comparative analysis method,this paper concludes that social security support policy,comprehensive assistance policy in resettlement areas,and basic public service support policy objectives are better realized with higher precision;while urban infrastructure construction support,which accounted for a high proportion in the funds of follow-up assistance policies,is not directly supporting migrants' livelihoods.Education and training policies to promote employment capacity enhancement,industrial support policies to promote job expansion,the precision is relatively low,the degree of fit is not enough,and the effect of goal achievement needs to be strengthened.Fourthly,based on the evaluation of the net effect of policy impact by doubledifference method(DID),this paper concludes that compared with the control group of urban residents,the livelihood support policies promote the improvement of disposable income of the experimental group(urban migrants),and the income gap with urban residents is gradually reduced,showing a significant positive effect.Among the control variables,education input and medical input have a significant positive effect on the increase of disposable income,while the household burden coefficient has no significant effects on disposable income.Fifth,the evaluation of the efficiency of policy funds based on the data envelopment approach(DEA)shows that each evaluation decision unit reflects a better comprehensive support efficiency;the mean value of pure technical efficiency also indicates a better management ability and level of policy funds;scale efficiency has become the main influencing factor limiting the improvement of comprehensive technical efficiency,but the improvement of scale efficiency can no longer be achieved simply by expanding the scale of inputs.Instead,the focus should be put on optimizing input structure,ratio and combination,eliminating input redundancy and improving input paths.The fourth part is policy optimization suggestions.Based on theoretical analysis and policy evaluation,and guided by the new development concept,we propose specific suggestions for policy optimization:Firstly,based on the theory of employment growth and industrial development effects,we support the green development of migrant ecoindustrial parks,the special development of eco-tourism,and the embedding of elderly service industry in migrant resettlement areas.Secondly,based on the benefits-sharing of the Three Gorges Project,we promote more direct participation of urban migrants in sharing the value-added benefits of the project brought by the concession of resources(use rights).Thirdly,combining the inadequacy and lack of livelihood capital cultivation policies,we propose policy optimization suggestions on health survival capacity support,family education intergenerational mobility support,education skills training support,social capital cultivation,and financial capital cultivation to promote further improvement of urban migrants' livelihood development capacity. |
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