Trend Prediction On The Export Of Chinese Higher Education Service Trade

As the trend of economic globalization and anti-globalization have entered a new historical stage,education service trade,as an important area in trade service,has been a hot topic from both home and abroad.Education service trade functions as the indicators for education internationalization and international service trade.Education service trade indicates the soft power of the country,and enhances the international competitiveness.It also helps to promote economic structural transformation and brings about considerable economic advantages.After China's implementation of the "belt and road" initiative,the traditional education superpower such as the United States,have made structural adjustments in the study-abroad polices.The global education service trade has arrived at a new stage,China is of no exception.Considering Chinese long-term education service trade deficit,it is of great significance to carry out the research on Chinese education service trade,especially on the export market.At present,the research on higher education service trade mainly focuses on comparative advantage research at macro level,but research on expanding the export of education service trade and reducing the overall trade deficit is insufficient,and there is no quantitative analysis on the multi-dimensional factors affecting the trade of higher education services in China.This paper reviews and summarizes the research of educational service trade by both Chinese and foreign scholars.Based on an overall analysis of the current situation of China and the world education service trade,the paper starts with the definition of service trade in GATS from four aspects,namely cross-border supply,consumption abroad,commercial presence and movement of natural persons to supply services in a foreign market.A reflective judgment model of the export trend of China's higher education service trade is constructed by using the method of theoretical research and empirical study.According to this model,it is proposed that economic situation,information connection,policy integration and talent exchange between China and the export target countries will affect the four modes mentioned above,and ultimately affect the export trends of China's education service trade.Based on the literature review,gap exists in the research of the measuring of the export trend of China's higher education service trade.Viewing the gap,this paper introduces indexes such as the global innovation index,innovation country evaluation,China innovation index,global soft power index in the evaluation of higher education service trade trend analysis,and analytic hierarchy process method is adopted in the construction of the index system of the export trend of China's higher education service trade.The evaluation reflective judgment model of the export trend of higher education service trade is improved,thus a quantitative analysis of the export trend of China's higher education service trade.Compared with previous studies,the evaluation results are not only the analysis and research on macro level and static aspect,but also the factors of micro level are considered.The dynamic data of each index can be used to revise the evaluation results.The output of the model can be used to analyze the target countries and development priorities of China's higher education service trade.Empirical evaluative analysis of 114 countries are conducted with measurable data in WTO using AHP,with which,the potential markets of China's higher education service trade and the market rankings are proposed.The accuracy of the evaluation results has been further confirmed with the statistical data of China's Ministry of education.The innovation of this paper mainly lies in three aspects:firstly,the basic problems in the trade of education services are solved by using the theory of complex adaptation system,the mechanism of a reflective judgment of the export trend of China higher education service trade is explained,and the model of the export trend of higher education service trade is constructed;secondly,the export trend of higher education service trade is proposed and verified.Thirdly,it proposes the main trends and main target countries of China's higher education service trade in the future,and provide the decision-making reference for the choices of higher education service trade export.It is proposed that considering the new trend of international development,in order to solve trade deficit in higher education services,it is of essential importance to seize the opportunity created by the Belt and Road Initiative.It is necessary to develop the higher education service trade in the countries along the border,to strive for the advantage of backwardness,and to launch the internationalization of education with a definite aim,and to find out the most valuable countries for China's export education service.Significantly,on the basis of enhancing our own strength,we should give priority to promote the expansion,reduce the overall deficit impacted by the scale effect,and improve the international image and build up the influence of China by increasing the economic benefits of education service trade.The paper holds that,in the light of internationalization,the solution to the deficit of China's higher education service trade can be found in the following 2 aspects:1.We should seize the international environment after China's "Belt and Road" initiative and prioritize the development of higher education service trade to countries along the routes to gain the Late-Development Advantage.The internationalization of education should be conducted through targeted policies designed to expand the channels and modes of studying abroad,more help in the infrastructure construction popularization of the Chinese education,and the more friendly channel for employment,along the routes.We should give priority to expanding the overall scale of education service exports on the basis of enhancing China's educational strength,thus cutting the overall deficit through the achieved scale effect.China's international image and influence can thus be promoted,as well as the economic benefits.2.We should pay more attention to the stabilization of the overall performance of studying in China.China will maintain a large number of international students in China and adopt branding strategies in International education services by better adapting to international rules,sustaining the cultural and people-to-people exchanges with the countries which make up the major proportions of the number,such as the United States and South Korea.At the same time,China's education service industry can play a better role in public diplomacy and contribute to the improvement of diplomatic relations with such countries as the United States,Japan and Korea.