Study On The Early-Warning Of Quality Safety Of Animal Products

Since the reform and opening up of our country, the living standard of urban and rural residents has constantly improved, and the consumption of animal products has continued to rise. However, events of animal products quality safety occurred frequently, which impacted consumers'health and safety directly, and have aroused widespread concern in the whole society. Therefore, the research on animal products quality safety early-warning provides against possible trouble, which has important theoretical and practical significance.In this paper, under the guiding of the early warning principle, risk theory, the scientific system theory and other relevant theories, the author adopts qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, case studies and other research methods, carries out the theory and empirical research on animal products quality safety early-warning, and combines the macroscopic and microscopic warning organically. This research has comprehensively anatomized the characteristics of the development of China's animal products quality and safety, systematically analyzed the various risk factors of animal products quality and safety, and then has revealed the basic law of China's animal products quality and safety, explored the theory of early-warning, constructed the indicator system and application index system, established the microscopic and macroscopic warning model, and has given some suggestions and policy recommendations on protecting of anima products quality and safety.The main contents of this creative research are as follows:(1)The author puts forward the theoretical analysis on animal products quality safety early-warning. Basing on comprehensively describing the research on early-warning, the paper proposes the theoretical analysis on animal products quality safety early-warning by the comprehensive using of risk theory, systems engineering methodology, nature dialectics, prediction and decision-making principle and other relevant theories. There are many risks in animal products quality safety and these risks can be predicted, managed and controlled. The essence of animal products quality safety early-warning is acquiring, analyzing and disseminating of information and the difficulties are quick acquirement and intelligent analysis on information. The project on early-warning of animal products quality safety has the character of public goods and early-warning can make animal products quality relatively safe status.(2)The author constructs animal products quality safety early-warning ideal index system and applied index system. Basing on Methodology, the author constructs animal products quality safety ideal index system in an ideal state, which includes one goal, five exponentials and twenty-nine indexes. Basing on ideal index system, according to practicability, comprehensiveness, sensitivity and maneuverability, the author constructs animal products quality safety early-warning applied index system which includes one goal, three exponentials and fifteen indexes. The fifteen early-warning applied indexes can be divided into twelve warning omen indexes, two warning status indexes and one lag index.(3)The author constructs microscopic and macroscopic model of animal products quality safety early-warning. According as basis thought of Likert Scale, giving consideration to conventional classifying principles of warning limits and the practice of animal products quality safety, the author defines warning limit to single warning degree and total warning degree. By analyzing on limited hazard and banned hazard, the author constructs early-warning microscopic model of single factor and product respectively. On the basis of microscopic early-warning, by combining economy with technology, the author develops research on macroscopic early-warning. On the one hand, the author adopts the Analysis Hierarchy Process(AHP)to evaluate the level of China animal products quality safety from 1996 to 2006, then adopts Delphi Method to test, and constructs AHP model of animal products quality safety early-warning. On the other hand, according to basis principle and steps of Support Vector Machine (SVM), the author constructs SVM model of animal products quality safety early-warning, and develops the train of SVM model basing on the evaluation of animal products quality safety early-warning AHP model, which is the organic combination of evaluation and early-warning. The author adopts the early-warning SVM model to demonstrate twenty-four samples, and the result of the demonstration is consistent with practice.(4)The author puts forward to the policy suggestions of animal products quality safety. The paper suggests that we should adopt effective safeguards such as perfecting system construction, enlarging breeding in scale, promoting circular economy, developing cooperative economy, supervising the market, improving safety cognition and realizing the information sharing, in order to ensure animal products quality in the safety condition, and then construct long-time safety mechanism of animal products quality safety.