| The Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei urban agglomeration is one of the three world-class urban agglomerations that China has proposed to establish in the "13th Five-Year Plan"and is also a densely populated area.In recent years,although the urbanization scale of the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei urban agglomeration has increased rapidly,the quality of regional urbanization has not improved simultaneously,and underlying problems such as imbalance,inconsistency,and unsustainability are becoming more prominent.The structure of the paper is as follows:based on the literature review and theoretical study,this paper constructs the urbanization quality theory framework model of urban agglomeration,and establishes the urbanization quality measurement model of urban agglomeration as a guide,and conducts a measurement study on the urbanization quality of Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei urban agglomeration.It has identified the quality of urbanization in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei urban agglomerationand explained the constraints and dynamic mechanism of the urbanization quality improvement of theBeijing-Tianj in-Hebei urban agglomeration;Using the system dynamics method,the SD simulation model of urbanization quality of Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei urban agglomeration is constructed,and the computer simulation experiment is used to visualize the internal mechanism of the system,and the optimal path of urbanization quality improvement of Beijing-Tanjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is clarified.On this basis,the general ideas and policy recommendations for the improvement of urbanization quality of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration are proposed.The paper includes the following five aspects:(1)Through the analysis of relevant national policy clues and the overall analysis of China's urbanization process,this paper introduces the background of the full-text research;explains the significance of urbanization quality research of urban agglomerations;summarizes the literatures in this field at home and abroad,and sorts out the development context.It defines the basic concepts of urban agglomeration,urbanization quality and urbanization quality of urban agglomerations;clarifies the urbanization quality system characteristics and system evolution process of urban agglomerations;explains the urbanization quality improvement driving subject and dynamic mechanism of urban agglomerations;The theoretical framework model of urbanization quality of urban agglomerations.(2)Based on the target-oriented identification method of influencing factors,the preliminary urbanization quality measurement index system of urban agglomeration has been constructed.The exploratory and confirmatory analysis of the above index system was carried out by SPSS20.0 and Amos Graphics 23.0 software,which formed three categories,7 aspects,and 26 measurable indicators of measurement model.The "rough set-information entropy" combination method is used to determine the weight of each indicator combination,and the urbanization quality mutation model of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is constructed and measured by the catastrophe progression method.The results show that from 2007 to 2016,the urbanization quality of the Beij ing-Tianj in-Hebei urban agglomeration experienced a relatively significant "S"-type wave-like change.Among themy the number of urbanization quality index continued to rise from 2007 to 2014,and the corresponding urbanization quality index increased from 0.8215 to the peak of the research interval of 0.9608.In 2016,it fell slightly to 0.9328.It is divided into a faster improvement phase(2007-2010),a smooth promotion phase(2010-2014),and a deep transformation phase(2014-2016).(3)By using Zipfs law,system synergy model and system grey correlation model,the urbanization quality improvement of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is revealed from the perspective of urban cluster size structure,subsystem relationship and significant factors.Using the DPSIR model,the evolution process of the urbanization quality system of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is analyzed from the perspective of "driving force-pressure-state-impact-response";From the three aspects of government-driven force,market-driven force and social-driven force,the main body of urbanization quality improvement of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is clarified;from the four aspects of population flow,material flow,energy flow and information flow,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city is explained.The group's urbanization quality enhances the dynamic mechanism.(4)Constructing an urbanization quality SD simulation model of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.The paper has used scenario analysis method to select 10 adjustment variables such as GDP growth rate to set up,set as many as 5 schemes including the status continuation,economic orientation,social orientation,ecological orientation and synergistic development.It uses the Vensim software to visualize the dynamic changes of the urbanization quality of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration under different scenarios during the simulation period.Through empirical and comparative analysis,the paper has clarified the optimal path to achieve urbanization quality improvement of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,which can be referred as "continuation of status quo(2017-2018)-ecological orientation(2019-2021)-coordinated development(2022-2026)".(5)Clarifying the overall thinking and policy recommendations for the improvement of urbanization quality of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.The overall idea is to combine the characteristics and trends of the urbanization quality evolution of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,follow the optimal path,and activate regional quality of urbanization of dynamic mechanism boost system thoroughly under the collaboration of government,market and society,through"complementing the short board" and "promoting synergy".The policy recommendations are to enhance the radiation driving of core cities,deepen the division of labor in the regional industrial chain,narrow the gap in regional basic public services,promote infrastructure integration,improve the intensive utilization level of resource elements,and strengthen the comprehensive management of pollution.The main innovations of this paper are as below:(1)Constructed a theoretical framework model of urbanization quality of urban agglomerations.The urbanization quality measurement index system and model of urban agglomerations were established.(2)Established a model of urbanization quality catastrophe in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,using the catastrophe progression method for measurement and analysis.The root causes of regional urbanization quality problems were identified,and the system dynamic mechanism of quality improvement was explained.(3)The SD simulation model of urbanization quality of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration was constructed.The dynamic changes of regional urbanizationquality under five scenarios during the simulation period were studied.The empirical and comparative analysis methods were used to clarify the optimal path of improvement. |
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