| The comparison among countries shows that countries that fail to achieve scale expansion and fully absorb labor force in modern sectors,and fail to narrow the gap with the world's cutting-edge technology,may fall into the middle-income trap.Countries falling into the middle-income trap are not short of high-speed growth in their history,what is missing is long-term sustainable growth;and what is missing is the optimization of the overall structure,that is,the overall structural modernization is not high.This paper constructs an analytical framework of structural modernization characterized by the integration of structural transformation and technological progress.Through the mechanism analysis of the general equilibrium model of two and three sectors,using transnational data and China's data,through descriptive statistics,growth accounting and econometric methods,empirical research is carried out,and the following conclusions are drawn.On the basis of the traditional structure analysis of development economics,this paper combines the structural transformation and technological progress to build the analysis framework of structural modernization,emphasizing that the economic development driven by structural transformation needs to be based on the conditions of technological progress.Only by promoting the productivity of the modern sector through technological progress can the structural transformation of labor and capital from the traditional sector to the modern sector produce the factor reallocation effect that drives the economic development.In the framework of general equilibrium model including agriculture and non agriculture,the mechanism of technological progress and structural transformation driving economic development is as follows.According to the experience of developing countries,it is assumed that the elasticity of substitution between non-agricultural products and agricultural products is greater than 1.The output of the non-agricultural sector increases as the rate of technological progress increases.Because the nonagricultural products can replace the agricultural products,the price of the nonagricultural products will not decrease because of the increase of output,so the increase of the rate of technological progress in the non-agricultural sector has realized the increase of the rate of return on labor and capital in the sector.The factor return rate of nonagricultural sector is higher than that of agricultural sector,which will lead to the structural transformation from the latter to the former.At the same time,the gap of technological progress rate makes structural transformation produce structural acceleration effect on economic growth.As the economic structure will converge to the non-agricultural sector with rapid technological progress,the economic growth rate will be determined by the technological progress rate of the non-agricultural sector under the limit conditions.In the general equilibrium model framework of three sectors including agriculture,industry and service industry,the mechanism of technological progress and structural transformation driving economic development is as follows.It is assumed that the elasticity of substitution between industrial products and service products is less than 1.Under the condition that the technological progress rate of the industrial sector is faster than that of the service sector,the output of industrial products will increase,but it can not replace the service products,which will lead to the decrease of the price of industrial products and the decrease of the factor return rate of labor and capital in the industrial sector and lower than that in the service sector,which will lead to the structural transformation of the factors from the industrial sector to the service sector.Moreover,the larger the gap of technological progress rate between departments,the faster the speed of structural transformation.Because the rate of industrial technological progress is higher than that of service industry,the gap of technological progress makes structural transformation produce structural deceleration effect on economic growth.Improving the technological progress rate of service industry can narrow the technological progress rate gap between service industry and industrial sector,thus reducing the speed of structural transformation to service industry and easing the structural slowdown pressure on economic growth.To improve the technological progress rate of industrial sectors,although it will expand the gap between sectors and accelerate the speed of structural transformation,it can still slow down the pressure of structural slowdown on economic growth in the early stage of structural slowdown,and play a role of homogenizing the growth rate in the whole process of structural slowdown.Empirical analysis shows that there are significant differences in the evolution path of structural modernization between countries with successful economic catch-up and countries with failed economic catch-up.Both of them have experienced the structural transformation process from agriculture to non-agriculture,but the non-agricultural modern sector of countries with failed economic catch-up has not achieved technological progress.The experience of leading countries shows that the higher the level of development,the narrower the space to promote growth relying on structural transformation,and the greater the role of technological progress in driving growth.The successful experience of Japan and South Korea in catching up shows that the per capita GDP is about 8000-10000 US dollars(2010 price),so it is necessary to adjust the driving force of structural modernization,and change from structural transformation to technological progress.From the perspective of sector differences,the driving role of the industrial sector has always run through the process of economic development.The realization of the modernization of the industrial sector in the countries with successful economic catch-up depends either on the one-dimensional drive of technological progress,or on the two-dimensional drive of technological progress and structural transformation.The industrial sector of the failed countries is either stagnant or shrinking.Technological progress in the industrial sector is the key to long-term economic development.Whether the leading countries go through the process of deindustrialization or Japan maintains the long-term stability of the proportion of employment in the industrial sector,the technological progress in the industrial sector has never stopped.The service-oriented economic structure is an inevitable trend for any kind of country,so the role of the technological progress rate of service industry in economic development is gradually decisive.Theory and international experience provide important enlightenment for China's structural modernization and economic development.Under the current level of per capita income,China needs to realize the change of driving force of structural modernization,from structural transformation to technological progress.It is urgent to cultivate the driving force of technological progress.However,there is still room for structural transformation.With per capita GDP in the range of 8000-10000 US dollars,China's structural transformation degree is lower than that of Japan and South Korea.China can further tap and stimulate the potential of structural transformation.In terms of employment share,China has begun to deindustrialize.Although the labor force will inevitably be transferred out of the industrial sector,the experience of leading countries and countries with successful economic catch-up shows that industrial development should be put at the top of the list at any stage of development,especially when it is driven by technological progress.At the same time,improving the technological progress rate of service industry can alleviate the premature and excessive deindustrialization and the structural deceleration effect caused by it.We should pay attention to the long-term significance of technological progress of service industry to economic development.In the context of the rise of a new round of scientific and technological revolution,China should pay attention to the following aspects in promoting structural modernization.China should promote the integration of innovation and industry to realize the dynamic industry,which is the key to ensure the technological progress of modern sectors.We will promote structural modernization through departmental modernization.At the same time of realizing the development of various industrial sectors,it promotes the modernization effect of structural interaction.At the same time,we should not neglect the role of agricultural modernization in economic development. |
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