| In recent years,China’s manufacturing industry has been faced with a serious problem of being large but not strong.The proportion of high-end industries is relatively low,the level of industrial structure is unbalanced.Core technologies and key components are subject to perennial control,and the innovation capability still lags behind that of developed countries.Summarizing,there are two main problems in our manufacturing industry.On the one hand,the traditional industries have excess capacity.The development of some traditional manufacturing industries is highly dependent on resources and energy,while the utilization efficiency of resources is low.The disadvantages of relying mainly on the extensive growth of resources are increasingly apparent.On the other hand,effective supply of our country’s high-end manufacturing products is insufficient,technical progress capability is weaker.Under this background,our country proposes the argument that manufacturing industry high-quality development.So it is vital to explore and study the constraints in our country manufacturing industry high-quality development.This paper mainly studies the development status of manufacturing industry from the perspective of input-output table,and then finds out the restrictive factors in the high-quality development of manufacturing industry,and puts forward relevant policy suggestions.First of all,this paper selected 2002-2018 as the sample interval to study the status quo of the manufacturing industry.After selecting the sample interval,this paper mainly did the following work: First,it adjusted the department classification according to the input-output table of published years within the sample interval,and maintained the consistency of the department classification of the input-output table;Second,the input-output table of unpublished years within the sample interval is forecasted by RAS method several times.Thirdly,the row balance model of input-output table is decomposed into technological progress coefficient,industrial structure and total final demand by structural decomposition model,and the driving effect of these three factors on total output changes is analyzed respectively.The fourth is to introduce control variables and use the state-space model to further study the dynamic correlation between the technological progress coefficient,industrial structure change coefficient and economic growth rate of the manufacturing industry.The empirical results show that:(1)the technological progress coefficient of manufacturing industry has insufficient driving effect on the change of total output and economic growth rate,and the speed of technological progress lags significantly behind the speed of economic growth,so the technological progress rate of manufacturing industry needs to be improved.(2)The change coefficient of the industrial structure of the manufacturing industry has insufficient driving effect on the change of the total output and economic growth rate.There are unreasonable phenomena in the industrial structure,and the adjustment space of the industrial structure is large.(3)In the three-factor structural decomposition model,the total final use in the manufacturing industry is the main growth force in the change of total output.The innovations of this paper are as follows: first,RAS method is used to find the equilibrium matrix several times iteratively,and the symmetric value-based input-output table of 42 sectors in 2003,2004,2006,2008,2009,2011,2013,2014 and 2016 is finally predicted.Secondly,the three-factor structural decomposition model is used to decompose the row balance formula of the input-output table,and the total output changes are decomposed into the result of technical coefficient,industrial structure and total final demand. |
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