| Land is not only a very important material carrier in urban development,but also a very special kind of assets.As an investment field,the value of urban land completely depends on land use.With the urban transformation,the different population,spatial scale and economic development level in cities all over China have led to great differences in land value potential.Some cities are fully aware of the potential value of land and make effective use of land resources in urban development;However,some places have lost the value of urban land due to blind development.Therefore,a correct understanding of urban land value structure and a reasonable measurement of urban land value potential will help to deeply grasp the development law of land economy and provide decision-making basis such as land development sequence and development opportunity for relevant urban departments and investors.Taking the value potential of urban land as the research object,this paper focuses on the relationship between urban land market value,ecological value and social value;The impact of ecological value and social value on urban land value;The contribution of ecological value and social value to the value of urban land;The change trend of urban land ecological value and social value potential.The research on the value potential of urban land is conducive to deepening the understanding of land value potential and its structure,especially a comprehensive understanding of the contribution of urban ecological value and social value to urban land,expanding the scope of land value evaluation,exploring innovative methods of land value evaluation,and providing new contents and research methods for land planning and utilization and related research,It provides a certain theoretical basis for policy-making of urban development and land planning.Based on the in-depth understanding of the connotation and constituent elements of urban land value potential,this paper establishes a new theoretical analysis framework of urban land value potential,analyzes the micro and macro determination mechanism of urban land value potential,as well as the role of urban land ecological value and social value,and takes Shenyang as a sample City,adopts Hedonic model By using mathematical methods such as factor analysis,simulated market method and analytic hierarchy process,this paper makes an empirical study on the impact and contribution of urban land ecological value and social value on land value and potential,measures the potential of urban land value,and discusses the change trend of urban land ecological value and social value in land value potential.This study finds that:(1)urban land value includes market value,ecological value and social value,in which market value has a direct impact on the value potential of urban land;Ecological value and social value have an external impact on the value potential of urban land,which indirectly affects the value potential of urban land by playing a role in market value.The role of urban land ecological value and social value on market value potential is reflected in:increasing investment market value potential,increasing use change market value potential,and increasing supply and demand market value potential.(2)The change of urban land ecological value and social value will have a significant impact on the change of land market value.Hedonic model analysis shows that the change of urban land ecological value has a significant impact on the change of commercial land and residential land market value.Among them,from the perspective of commercial land,the per capita park green space area,air quality index,green space coverage in built-up areas and harmless treatment rate of domestic waste will increase the value of commercial land by 0.2165 percentage points,decrease by 0.1443 percentage points,increase by 0.1114 percentage points and increase by 0.0421 percentage points respectively.From the perspective of residential land use,the value of residential land will increase by 0.3052 percentage points,0.2548 percentage points,0.2441 percentage points and 0.2392 percentage points for each percentage point increase in the ecological impact factors such as green space coverage rate of built-up area,harmless treatment rate of domestic waste,air quality index and per capita park green space area.The change of social value of urban land has a significant impact on the change of market value of commercial land,residential land and industrial land.From the perspective of commercial land use,the influence of several social factors such as the rate of construction land use,the growth rate of fiscal revenue,the number of buses with 10000 people,per capita residential area,per capita Road area,population growth rate and the number of health technicians with 10000 people increased by one percentage point,The market value of urban commercial use will increase by 0.4544,0.1627,0.1582,0.0763,0.067,0.0482 and 0.0237 percentage points respectively.From the perspective of industrial land,the market value of industrial land will increase by 0.1332,0.1199,0.1199,0.1121,0.0746 and 0.0447 percentage points respectively for each percentage point increase in the influence of social factors such as construction land rate,growth rate of fiscal revenue,number of buses per 10000 people,per capita Road area and population growth rate.The analysis shows that urbanization promotes the growth of urban land value.Urban economic development,infrastructure construction and population growth can promote the growth of urban land value.(3)With the sustainable development of urbanization,the contribution of ecological value and social value to urban land value is increasing day by day.The analysis of the contribution rate of urban land ecological value and social value in the land value of big cities in Shenyang shows that the land value of big cities keeps rising under the sustainable development of urbanization.Among them,the growth of ecological value is stable,and the growth of land social value is large.The results also show that in the early stage of development,big cities ignore the problems of land ecological value and social value,resulting in slow growth or even decline of ecological value and social value.With the development of urbanization,the government and development departments have increased their investment in the ecological environment and social environment,effectively improving the proportion of the ecological value and social value of urban land in the urban land value,so that the ecological value and social value of large cities have a key impact on the urban land value and its potential.The analysis of the contribution rate of land ecological value and social value in Chongqing to the land value of super cities shows that in the early stage of the development of super cities,the urban land value increases rapidly,the super cities enter the mature development period,and the growth of urban land value tends to be stable.After the rapid development in the early stage,the land ecological value and social value of mega cities also tend to be stable.In the land value structure of mega cities,the proportion of ecological value and social value continues to increase,and the proportion of market value continues to decline.It shows that the development of mega cities pays more and more attention to the ecological value and social value of urban land,and promotes the cultivation of the ecological value potential and social value potential of urban land.The analysis of the contribution rate of land ecological value and social value in the land value of medium-sized cities in Shaoguan shows that the land value of medium-sized cities has always maintained a rapid upward trend.The slow growth of urban land ecological value and social value is due to the excessive emphasis on land market value in medium-sized cities and the neglect of the cultivation of ecological value and social value.The proportion of land ecological value and social value in land value in medium-sized cities continues to grow,and the proportion of land social value has an obvious growth trend.The results of empirical analysis show that ecological value,social value and potential play an increasingly important role in the value potential of urban land.(4)The influence of urban land ecological value and social value on urban land value potential is increasing,and the influence of land market value is weakening.The empirical analysis using principal component analysis shows that the land market value potential increases rapidly in the early stage of mega city development.In the mature period,the growth of land ecological value potential and social value potential in mega cities is accelerated,which restricts the growth of urban land market value potential.The market value potential of land in big cities shows a rapid increase-slow increase-stable or downward trend.This is closely related to the importance of the big city government to the ecological environment and social environment,as well as the improvement of residents' ecological environment awareness and social environment awareness.The market value potential of land in medium-sized cities has gradually increased as a whole.This is related to the late development of land market in medium-sized cities,local governments and residents pay too much attention to the market value of land and ignore the ecological value potential and social value potential of urban land.The analysis of the change trend of land ecological value in the land value potential of mega cities shows that in the early stage of urbanization,the land ecological value potential of mega cities decreases rapidly.The reason is that urban residents pursue financial income driven by the needs and interests of improving the living environment,resulting in insufficient attention to the ecological environment.In the stable development stage,urban residents began to pay attention to the ecological environment.In order to cultivate the land value potential,the government strengthened the investment in the ecological environment,making the land ecological value potential of mega cities rise slowly.In the mature development stage,the government tends to the intensive growth mode,continuously increases the investment in ecological environment,and promotes the rapid growth of land ecological value potential.At the beginning of urbanization in big cities,the potential of land ecological value continues to decline slowly.The reason is that the local government's pursuit of economic growth and financial performance leads to the neglect of ecological environment investment.In the sustainable development stage of urbanization,the declining trend of land ecological value potential in big cities has been alleviated.The reason is that the government and development departments have increased investment in ecological environment in order to attract more real estate investors and meet the needs of residents to improve their living environment.The potential of land ecological value in medium-sized cities has always been in a continuous downward trend.The reason is that local governments pursue economic growth and financial performance,and the relevant laws and regulations on environmental protection are not perfect,which makes medium-sized cities ignore the investment in ecological environment construction.With the continuous improvement of laws and regulations related to environmental protection and the restriction of extensive development,the downward trend of ecological value potential of medium-sized cities began to slow down.In the early stage of urbanization of mega cities,the social value potential of urban land has decreased greatly.The reason is that the rapid development of urbanization leads to a large number of social problems such as land,housing,transportation and public security,which affects the cultivation of social value potential of land.In the stable development stage,the social value potential of land in mega cities is in a stable state.The reason is that the urbanization construction standard is improved,and the government attaches importance to the investment in infrastructure.In the mature stage,government functions began to increase investment in infrastructure,and urban residents' demand for social environment continued to increase,which promoted the cultivation and growth of the social value potential of mega cities.The social value potential of land in big cities is basically in a stable state.The reason is that the continuous improvement of urbanization construction laws,regulations and urban development planning has solved land problems,housing problems,traffic problems,public security problems and other social problems,ensuring the stability of the social value potential of urban land.The social value potential of land in medium-sized cities has been stable for a long time.The reason is that the urbanization construction of medium-sized cities started late,and megacities and big cities provide them with referential experience.Some cities over exploit the market value potential of land and ignore the cultivation of social value potential,resulting in the decline of social value potential of urban land.The innovations of this paper are:(1)it is found that the changes of urban land ecological value and social value have a significant impact on the changes of market value;(2)In the context of urbanization,ecological value and social value contribute more and more to the value of urban land.(3)The impact of urban land ecological value and social value on urban land value potential is gradually increasing,and the impact of land market value on urban land value potential is gradually weakening.The influence degree of ecological value potential and social value potential in urban land value potential changes regularly. |
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