The Study On The Potential And Determinants On China’s Export

Since 2012,under the pressures of structural imbalances of the supply side and the changes of the international market demand structure,Chinese economy steps into a high-speed development of the "new normal",in this context,although the total exports still ranked the first in the world,the growth power is obviously insufficient.In 2015,China’s exports have increased by-2.58%,and the comparative advantage of traditional labor-intensive exports has gradually weakened.Therefore,it is very important to estimate China’s export potential and determinants.This paper is subject to China’s export potential and determinants.First,Based on a large number of relevant literatures on export potential and influencing factors at home and abroad,this paper makes a statistical study on the export situation of China from 2001 to 2015,which includes the change of total quantity and market structure and Export dependency.Combining with the index of RCA,we analyze China’s exports of the comparative advantage all industries’ changes and found such problems that China’s exports have existed the high dependence on export,and the market distribution is too concentrated.Second,aiming at the problems stated above,we select the panel data from 2008 to 2015,and use the gravitational model as the empirical analysis tool.We combined two variables as the exchange rate and the APEC to extend the model to the regression.The model did the test and finally determined the optimal model.Third,we use the regression equation of the model to analyze the export potential and determinants of China from the total level.It is found that China’s export potential shows a state of “big middle little sides”,so is that "potential expansion" countries or region accounted for the majority,"The huge potential " and "potential reconstruction" countries are basically the same minority,for the "potential reconstruction" countries,we can found that there still exists such “potential reconstruction” countries with similarity in demand but quite big difference between EP values,are still the options to expand the export potential.The export potential of the EU,ASEAN and BRIC countries has been analyzed specifically,and China’s export potential for these major trading partners has not been fully exploited.It is found that the export for Germany,Holland,Hungary,Malta,Poland,Slovenia’s stay in deficient state,Belgium,Denmark and other 17 countries stay in moderate state;or the 10 ASEAN countries,Indonesia,Malaysia,Singapore,Philippines,Vietnam stay insufficient,Burma,Thailand,Kampuchea is in the moderate state;for the brick countries,Russia and South Africa stays in insufficient,Brazil and India stays in the moderate state.Fourth,Thought the analysis of the determinants on export,we can find that the total economy is positively correlated with exports,and a big impact on exports,also the coefficient of elasticity of export market’s economy log on China’s exports log is greater than the elastic coefficient of China’s economy on his own exports;The exchange rate has small inhibitory effect on export;APEC has a little greater positive effect on export.Fifth,based on empirical regression equation and a assumption that the development trend of the world’s economy remain stable,this paper made a trend analysis for China’s future exports,combing the determinants on exports,give several reference suggestions on how to break the bottleneck and dig export potential.