Urban-Rural Factor Allocation And Agricultural Production Efficiency Changes In The Transition

The No.1 document of the Central Government in 2022 proposes to focus on the needs of major national strategies,stabilize the basic plate of agriculture,do a good job in the "three rural areas",continue to comprehensively promote the revitalization of the countryside,ensure stable and increased agricultural production,and promote the modernization of agriculture and rural areas to take new steps.At present,China's dual urban-rural dual structure(dual economic structure and dual social structure)has existed for a long time,and there is a long-term imbalance between the four transformations(agricultural modernization,urbanization of land,urbanization of population and industrialization),the transformation and upgrading of the consumer demand structure of urban and rural residents,and the slowdown of labor transfer but the gap between agricultural and non-agricultural production efficiency has not been narrowed.In this context,how to steadily promote high-quality agricultural and rural development,realize the optimal allocation of core production factors such as labor,land,capital and technology between urban and rural areas,and promote the convergence of agricultural and non-agricultural production efficiency are all important practical issues that need to be discussed and solved in the new era.In view of this,based on China's typical dual urban-rural dual structure,this paper focuses on the classical dual economic development theory---Lewis analysis paradigm,through the research method of "theoretical analysis-statistical investigation-empirical test",based on the "endogenous causative factors-exogenous constraints-exogenous incentives Based on the "endogenous causative factors-exogenous constraints-exogenous incentives",we examine the connotation of optimal allocation of production factors such as labor,land,capital and technology between urban and rural areas,and their paths of influencing changes in agricultural production efficiency.At the same time,the modern agricultural sector is included in the Lewis analysis paradigm,and the statistical examination is also based on empirical tests of the important role of the modern agricultural sector in the high-quality development of agriculture and rural areas in terms of both the level of organization and the level of socialization services.In general,this study has important theoretical and practical significance for comprehensively promoting rural revitalization,promoting high-quality development of agriculture and rural areas,and realizing the integration of urban and rural economic and social development.The main content of this paper can be summarized in four parts.First,we summarize the characteristic facts from the background of the study,refine the premises of the analysis,and summarize the key issues to be addressed in this paper,and through the theoretical history of the evolution of the urban-rural relationship,we understand the above characteristic facts,and review the relevant studies on the urban-rural structure and transformation in China,so as to obtain the theoretical clues of this study and find the fulcrum for the marginal contribution of this study.Secondly,by drawing on the Lewis paradigm,we incorporate the modern agricultural sector into the analytical framework,form a "dual structure and three sectors" analytical framework with Chinese characteristics,incorporate exogenous constraints such as land system and credit system,and exogenous incentives such as technology application and farmland rights into the analytical model,and develop the univariate analysis of the Lewis paradigm into a multivariate analysis.The univariate analysis of the Lewis paradigm is developed into a multivariate analysis,and the labor flow between urban and rural areas is divided into three stages of "inflow-stay-settle" and two intervals,and the factor allocation between urban and rural areas is statistically examined in segments,and six hypotheses to be verified concerning the main content of this paper are obtained.Then,on the basis of the previous statistical study,we analyze the flows of labor,land and capital between urban and rural areas under the endogenous and exogenous constraints to answer the key question of the "transformation paradox" that the rate of labor transfer slows down but the productivity of urban and rural areas still "continues to diverge",and verify the first two hypotheses obtained from the previous statistical study.Finally,on the basis of the previous paper,we further demonstrate the role of exogenous incentives,such as Internet application and farmland titling,on the allocation of urban and rural factors,portray the modern agricultural sector in terms of organization level and social service level,and empirically test their specific roles in narrowing the gap between agricultural and non-agricultural productivity,and test each of the four hypotheses obtained in the previous paper.The findings of this paper are as follows: First,the modern agricultural sector is a third sector that cannot be ignored in addition to the agricultural sector and the urban industrial and commercial sector in the development of China's dual structure and will play an important key role in the future.Second,the migration of highly qualified labor groups is the endogenous trigger for the formation of the urban-rural labor productivity gap,while institutional constraints and credit constraints are the exogenous constraints for the formation of the urban-rural labor productivity gap.The second Lewis turning point(i.e.,the "commercialization point")will also lag behind the theoretically predicted commercialization point.Third,"endogenous incentives," "exogenous constraints," and "exogenous incentives" are the three essential dimensions for studying changes in urban-rural factor allocation and agricultural production efficiency.Fourth,increasing the labor productivity of farm households is an important way to achieve a new breakthrough in China's economic growth.The marginal contributions of this paper are mainly reflected in the following three aspects: first,in the analytical framework,the Lewis analysis paradigm is concretized and Chineseized,and the "dual structure three-sector economy" including the modern agricultural sector is constructed,first,the univariate analysis of the Lewis analysis paradigm is changed into multivariate analysis,and second,the "surplus labor" is reorganized into a multivariate analysis.Finally,the institutional constraints(land and household registration)and credit(capital)constraints are included in the analysis to avoid the limitations of Lewis' s paradigm of ignoring institutional factors;secondly,in terms of research perspective,the "transition paradox" of slowing down the labor force transfer but the productivity gap still exists is precisely identified."Third,in terms of research methodology,this paper adopts a three-dimensional research approach of "theoretical analysis-statistical investigation-empirical test".We use double difference model(DID),non-parametric estimation method(DEA model),propensity score matching(PSM),multivariate logit model,mediating effect,quantile regression,counterfactual analysis framework,Bootstrap and Sobel test,etc.to analyze the inner mechanism of urban-rural factor allocation and agricultural production efficiency change.