The Complexity Of Mass Incidents And Its Influence On The Selection Of Emergency Alternative

Mass incident is a special phenomenon in the period of social transition in China.It is not only a manifestation of the intensification of social contradictions,but also a key issue faced by grassroots governance.Currently,social principal contradictions of our country have turned into the imbalance between people’s increasing needs and inadequate social development.This major change,i.e.needs for people’s better life,is becoming serious not only in higher requirements,the material and cultural life and democracy,but also in the increasing demand of law,fairness and justice,safety and environmental requirements.The demand of individuation,diversification and continuous upgrading not only puts forward higher requirements for the quality and efficiency of development,but also demand higher requirements for governance system and governance capacity at the grassroots level.Improper handling will lead to mass incidents.Once mass disturbance happens,it will bring negative influence to social development,social order and social stability.To deal with mass disturbance in an immediate and effective manner,it is necessary to understand its own characteristics and general rules of objectively.The potential conflicts of group incidents go through many stages from the initial formation,development and outbreak to the final extinction.The objective development of the event itself will affect the perception of decision-making risk and individual emotion,and then impact the selection result of response plan.In order to solve this problem,it is necessary to deeply analyze the development process of mass incidents,and on this basis to clarify the components of the events and their impacted mechanism on the choice of response plan.Previous studies viewed from dynamic game theory,information theory and psychology from the perspective of situational theory of one kind of mass incidents in the evolution process,with an emphasis of the dynamic nature of events,the mass incidents is not considered as a variety of complex problems,which can not lay foot from objective factors of the development of the whole research and their mechanism to cope with the effects of the scheme selection.In view of this deficiency,this thesis,combined with the research conclusions of other scholars,defines the connotation and characteristics of the complexity of group disturbances,defines its evaluation dimension,and analyzes the connotation of the complexity of each dimension.According to the connotation of the complexity of such events,the initial evaluation scale was developed and adjusted by means of predictive test.The method of optimal weight combination-cloud model theory is used to measure the complexity of group disturbances,the results are analyzed and the corresponding countermeasures and Suggestions are proposed.At the same time,the conceptual model between the complexity of group incidents and the choice of response plan is constructed and the hypothesis is tested.The research conclusion reveals the development process of mass disturbance,and it also has certain theoretical contribution for the coping mode and management practice of such incidents.Compared with existed studies,the innovative contribution of this thesis is mainly reflected in the following aspects:First,it analyzes the connotation and characteristics of the complexity of group incidents,clarifies the connotation of each dimension of the complexity of group incidents,and constructs the evaluation index system.According to the complexity theory,the connotation and characteristics of the complexity of group disturbances are analyzed.At the same time,this thesis analyzes the development process of group incidents and defines the components of group incidents with the theory of crisis life cycle.Based on this,it further analyzes the changes of each component in the process of event development and their mutual relations,divides the complexity of group disturbance into participant complexity,information complexity and environment complexity,and analyzes the connotation of each dimension.In addition,according to the diversity of event development,the three dimensions of event complexity were further subdivided and the initial evaluation scale of group event complexity was constructed.Meanwhile,the predictive test method was used to adjust the scale to establish a formal scale,which laid a foundation for the following research.In this part;the complexity of mass incidents is measured by a quantifiable evaluation index system,so as to realize a quantitative study on the complexity of such events.Secondly,the quantitative measure of the complexity of group incidents is realized by the combination of the optimal combination weighting and the cloud model,and the example is verified.The dynamic nature of the development of mass incidents and the complexity of the external environment greatly increase the potential risks faced by governments at all levels and relevant departments in the process of emergency decision-making,which seriously affects the effectiveness of response strategies.This study constructs a measure index system for the complexity of group incidents from three aspects:event participants,information and environment.On this basis,an optimal combination weighting-cloud model is proposed to measurement the complexity of group incidents.Three mass incidents were selected as measurement objects to analyze their complexity,and key complex factors in the decision-making of the event were identified according to the analysis and measurement results,and then the corresponding countermeasures and Suggestions were proposed.In this part,the research provides a relatively effective method for the complexity measurement of group incidents,and formulates targeted response plans and intervention strategies according to the complexity of components in different events,so as to improve the response speed and response effect of governments at all levels to such events.Thirdly,the thesis discusses the relationship between the complexity of group incidents and the choice of response plan,as well as the roles of decision risk perception and individual emotion perception.Based on the previous three parts on the complexity of group incidents,this thesis combines the classical theory of behavioral decision-making and the theory of emotional perception,takes risk perception as the mediating variable,and individual emotion as the regulating variable,constructs a conceptual model between the complexity of group incidents and the choice of coping scheme,and proposes relevant hypotheses.At the same time,the hypothesis test,variance analysis and multiple regression analysis were used to verify whether the hypothesis was valid.The results showed that there was a positive relationship between each component of the complexity of group disturbances and the controlled strength of the response plan.However,for the regulation effect of individual emotion between them,the test results in different emotional types.Among them,anxiety promoted positive relationship between the complexity of events and the management of coping programs,while fear weakened the positive relationship between the complexity of events and the management of coping programs.The mediating effect of risk perception between the two has also been verified.By improving the intensity of direct risk perception and indirect risk perception,event complexity prompts decision makers to choose response plans with greater control.Meanwhile,compared with indirect risk perception,direct risk perception plays a more significant role in promoting the management and control of response plans.These conclusions indicated the influence mechanism of event complexity,risk perception and individual emotion on the management and control of response plan in the development process of group incidents,thus helped decision-makers to avoid the decision risk brought by subjective cognition as much as possible.Hence,the effect of emergency decision is improved.