| Due to the continuous and rapid social and economic development and the change of birth concept and other factors,the great change of school-age population in compulsory education has come into being in the new century,which has brought some shock to the disposition of compulsory education resources between urban and rural areas.At present,the allocation of compulsory education resources has aroused extensive attention from society and academia.However,there is still a lack of research on integrating the changes of school-age population into the allocation of compulsory education resources from the perspective of demography.In practice,the long-term low fertility level,increasingly active population migration and mobility,the decrease in the number of births and the gradually accelerated urbanization process are superimposed on each other,which is not only reflected in the great changes in the distribution of school-age population between regions and urban and rural areas,but also poses new and greater challenges to the allocation of educational resources.Based on the requirements of The Times of long-term balanced development of population and highquality development of education,the current situation and trend of school-age population change were scientifically analyzed,and the restriction and promotion effect of school-age population change on the allocation of educational resources were clarified.This will help to improve the scientific nature of policies and plans related to the allocation of educational resources,promote the change of school-age population and the coordination of educational development,and finally promote the high-quality development of education in China and further improve the quality of population.This research selected the school-age population of compulsory education as the research object,and adopted the cohort factor method,factor analysis and cluster analysis,panel regression analysis,multiple linear regression analysis and other research methods to explore the impact of school-age population changes on the allocation of compulsory education resources in China.The basic idea is to analyze the current situation and characteristics of school-age population changes in the past two decades,and to describe and empirically analyze the impact of school-age population size changes on the allocation of compulsory education resources from the national,provincial,urban and rural levels.It also predicts the trend of changes in the school-age population with compulsory education from 2020 to 2035 and its impact on the allocation of educational resources.Based on the demographic perspective,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the possible resource allocation problems.The paper is divided into the following seven chapters:In the first and second chapters,this topic is introduced.Including introduced this topic research background,explain the theoretical and practical significance of this topic.This paper combs the research framework from three aspects of research ideas,research contents and research methods,and points out the innovation and shortcomings of this paper.It also introduces the core concepts and theoretical basis involved in the research,which provides theoretical support for subsequent research.The third chapter analyzes the characteristics and trends of the changes of the school-age population in compulsory education.This paper summarizes and analyzes the changing characteristics and reasons of school-age population at the national,provincial and urban levels.In addition,the cohort factor method is used to predict the size of the school-age population for compulsory education from 2020 to 2035,which serves as the basis for the scenario prediction of the allocation of compulsory education resources from 2020 to 2035.First of all,from the national level,although the size of the school-age population in compulsory education has increased slightly in the past decade due to changes in the age structure of the population,the size of the school-age population in compulsory education showed an overall downward trend from 2000 to2020,and will still fluctuate in the future for a long period of time.Secondly,from the provincial level,there are obvious differences in the size of school-age population among provinces.In the future,the regional distribution of school-age population will show the characteristics of regional economic level orientation and education urbanization.Thirdly,from the perspective of urban and rural level,the scale of school age population in urban areas shows an increasing trend in the past twenty years,and the scale of low school age population greatly increases.The size of the rural school-age population has been decreasing significantly.In the future,the size of school-age population in urban areas will first rise and then decline,while in rural areas,it will show a steady downward trend.According to the logical sequence of current situation analysis,empirical study and scenario prediction,the fourth to the sixth chapter respectively studies the impact of changes in the national school-age population,provincial changes and urban-rural structure changes on the allocation of compulsory education resources.In Chapter 4,based on the analysis of the current situation of compulsory education resource allocation in China from 2003 to 2019,multiple linear regression analysis is used to verify the impact of changes in the size of school-age population on education resource allocation.The demand for compulsory education resources in China from2020 to 2035 is predicted based on the forecast results of the national school-age population.The results show that the demand for compulsory education resources varies with the school-age population.The decrease in the size of the school-age population has a significant positive impact on the number of teachers and schools in compulsory education,and a significant negative impact on the quality of teachers,education funds per student and total fixed assets per student.The prediction results also show that the number of primary school teachers needs to be reduced and the number of junior high school teachers needs to be increased in the future.The demand for education funds is increasing all the time.In terms of school conditions,the number of compulsory education schools in China generally shows a downward trend,but the number of junior middle schools needs to increase before 2025.In the fifth chapter,the author studies the influence of provincial school-age population change on the allocation of compulsory education resources.The research idea is: based on the analysis of the current situation of educational resources allocation in each province,the 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions are classified by factor analysis and cluster analysis,and the representative provinces of each category are selected.Panel regression was used to verify the impact of changes in the size of school-age population in provinces on the allocation of educational resources.Based on the prediction of school-age population in representative provinces,the allocation of educational resources from 2020 to 2035 was predicted.The study found that,first of all,there were differences in the allocation of educational resources in different provinces from 2010 to 2019,but all of them were gradually improving,especially in economically developed regions and policy-oriented regions such as Tibet.Secondly,the provinces in China are divided into eight categories,among which the second category represented by Beijing has the best educational resource allocation,while the eighth category represented by Sichuan has the worse educational resource allocation.Thirdly,the panel regression results showed that the change of school-age population size had a significant positive impact on the allocation of educational resources,except for the share of full-time teachers above undergraduate level and the total fixed assets per student.Finally,as each representative province will be affected by the decline of primary school-age population and the different changes of junior school-age population in the future,the demand for educational resources of each representative province will also show different characteristics.In terms of the number of teachers,first,Hebei Province needs to reduce the number of primary school teachers and increase the number of junior middle school teachers in the future.Second,the compulsory education in Jilin Province needs to reduce the scale of teachers.Third,other provinces such as Beijing,Zhejiang and other compulsory education stage need to supplement teacher resources.In terms of school conditions including computer and floor space of school buildings,the following trends are presented.First,the rising trend of fluctuation,including Beijing junior high school,needs to increase the input of material resources.Second,continuing the downward trend,including primary schools in Jilin,Sichuan,Hebei and Ningxia,the input of material resources should be reduced.Third,the fluctuation downward trend,including other provinces and education stage,such as compulsory education stage in Zhejiang Province,junior high school stage in Hebei Province,etc.With 2025 as the boundary,it increased first and then decreased.In terms of education expenditure,all provinces need to increase the education expenditure per student in the future,among which Beijing has the highest demand for education expenditure per student,while Hebei Province has the lowest.In the sixth chapter,the same ideas as the previous two chapters are adopted to explore the impact of changes in the urban and rural structure of school-age population on the allocation of compulsory education resources.It is found that,first of all,the education expenditure in urban and rural areas increased year by year from 2003 to 2019,but the education expenditure in urban areas was still higher than that in rural areas,and the gap between urban and rural areas widened.The quality of teachers and school conditions in urban areas were higher than those in rural areas.Secondly,the regression analysis results show that the change of urban and rural school-age population will have a significant impact on the allocation of compulsory education resources.It is of great reference significance to predict the demand for compulsory education resources in urban and rural areas based on the changing scenario of school-age population in urban and rural areas.Thirdly,the prediction results show that the future teacher resources will converge with the school-age population to urban areas.Both urban and rural areas need to further increase investment in education in accordance with national policies.The area of school buildings for compulsory education in urban areas fluctuates,while the area of school buildings for compulsory education in rural areas will continue to decrease.We need to make plans in advance.Chapter 7 summarizes the conclusions and puts forward countermeasures.It is concluded that the characteristics of school-age population change,the trend of schoolage population change,the status quo of educational resources,the influencing factors of educational resources allocation and the results of educational resources allocation are the key elements to analyze the impact of school-age population change on the allocation of compulsory education resources.In terms of countermeasures and suggestions,this paper firstly put forward countermeasures from the perspective of school-age population changes,and suggested perfecting the school-age population forecasting management system and popularizing high-level compulsory education.This requires active response to changes in the school-age population and scientific adjustment of the layout of primary and secondary schools.Secondly,countermeasures are put forward for educational resources.It is suggested to effectively adjust the resources of compulsory education teachers,rationally allocate the demand for compulsory education funds,and constantly optimize the conditions for running compulsory education in combination with the changing trend of school-age population.In general,this study discusses the impact of school-age population changes on the allocation of compulsory education resources in China,provinces and urban and rural areas,analyzes the reasons and predicts the possible consequences in the future.The content of this research is a cross study of demography and pedagogy,which comprehensively uses the theories and methods of demography and pedagogy,and the research content is innovative.The research conclusion has certain theoretical significance and practical reference value for realizing the fairness of provincial and urban education,improving the quality of education and population. |
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