The Influence Of Population Change On The Allocation Of Compulsory Education Resources

Since the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy,localities have responded to policy calls and encouraged qualified families to give birth to two children.According to statistics from the Hefei City Health and Family Planning Commission,from the implementation of the "full-scale two-child" policy to the end of September 2016,the city's birth population Compared with the same period in 2015,it has increased by more than 11,000 people,of which39,300 were born and 20% of newborns.At the same time,the rapid development of urbanization in Hefei,the rapid accumulation of rural population in Hefei,the provincial capital,and the liberalization of Hefei's school-age population policy for non-Hefei households will pose a great challenge to Hefei's compulsory education resources.Therefore,scientific forecasting of the number of future school-age populations and the formulation of corresponding education plans in advance become issues that need to be solved urgently by the education department.This study integrates population forecasting and education development theories,cuts in from the perspective of demographic changes,sorts out the development and current status of urbanization and compulsory education in Hefei,and conducts a questionnaire survey on the fertility desire of “comprehensive two children”,using a population forecasting method for Hefei.The number of school-age population of compulsory education in the city from 2017 to 2030 is forecasted.According to the forecast results,the relevant standards for the allocation of compulsory education resources in urban and rural areas in Hefei City are combined.The number of schools,the number of full-time teachers,and the school building area(footprint,school building area)are three.It elaborates on the future demand for compulsory education resources forurban-rural school-age population,and proposes countermeasures to optimize the allocation of compulsory education resources in response to demand.The study finds that between 2017 and 2030,along with the dual promotion of urbanization and changes in fertility policies,the number of primary and middle school age populations in urban areas in Hefei City has increased year by year,while the total number of primary and middle school age groups in Lujiang County is generally declining.It has picked up around 2027.Based on changes in the number of school-age children in the future,there are deficiencies in the number of schools,the number of full-time teachers,and the construction area of ??schools in Hefei City.It is necessary to increase the number of schools in each district,recruit teachers,allocate staff,and expand educational land.The compulsory education resources in Lujiang County can fully meet the demand,and some schools need to be withdrawn to improve the efficiency of resource allocation and thus improve the quality of compulsory education.In the face of the challenge of the deployment of compulsory education resources caused by the change in the number of school-age populations,it is important to identify important time-points,especially the years when infants born after the release of the "comprehensive two-child" policy have entered primary school and junior high school,and make educational plans as early as possible.It is timely to grasp the demand of educational resources in various districts of the city and do a good job in education distribution.To primary and secondary schools in rural areas,the main task is to improve the level of compulsory education,optimize the efficiency of resource allocation,and promote the equalization and connotative development of compulsory education in urban and rural areas as a whole.