| Population migration is not only the result of economic and social development,but also a key element of economic and social development.The problem of floating population is not only a social problem,but also an important economic development problem.Since the 1980 s,China’s economic and social development has experienced a dramatic change.The economy has continued to grow rapidly,the industry has been continuously transformed and upgraded.With the development and progress of the economy and society,the size of the floating population is constantly expanding.By the end of 2020,the size of the floating population has reached 367 million.More than half of the floating families have three or more members living in the same city,and the population movement is gradually carried out in "family" units.It can be seen that China’s population flow and migration of family characteristics more and more prominent.The migration of population has caused separation of family members,young and middle-aged families leave children and elderly people behind,and some family men go out and women stay at home.Population migration has impacted traditional families and marriages,increased social problems such as left-behind children,leftbehind elderly people,and the divorce rate of floating population,increasing the possibility of social instability.The stability of the family is the foundation of social stability,especially the stability of the floating family is very important for building a harmonious society.Under the overall development trend of family migration of floating population in China,the realization degree of family migration is not high.Not all families have realized the complete family migration in which family members migrate together.Many family members are still facing the dilemma of being scattered in two or more places,and have been separated from their spouses,children or parents for a long time;In addition,migrant families entering the city have also encountered many challenges.The family migration of the floating population can enrich the emotional life of the floating population,fill the emotional gap,give better play to the family function,enhance the urban integration of the floating population,promote the citizenization of the floating population and improve the quality of population urbanization.Therefore,this paper mainly focuses on the floating population,and from the perspective of floating families,makes a deep and systematic study on the family migration of floating population.On the basis of sorting out the existing related theories and related research on population mobility,this paper uses the dynamic monitoring data of the floating population of the National Health and Health Commission over the years.By using quantitative analysis methods such as multi-level linear regression model,classification Logistic regression model,and classification Probit regression model,this research analyzes the effect mechanism of macro-external economic development level,housing investment,government intervention,employment environment,living environment,population density and other factors on the family migration level of floating population.On this basis,it further analyzes the influence of the four dimensions of household head characteristics,family characteristics,economic characteristics and mobility characteristics on the family migration pattern of the floating population and the influencing factors of the settlement intention of the family migration population.Grasping the family migration trend,basic characteristics and influencing factors of the floating population,can help promote the rational and orderly flow of population,improve the supporting policy system for the citizenization of the floating population,accelerate the full integration of the floating population into the destination city,to provide theoretical support and empirical examples.The main findings of this paper are described as follows.First,economic factors have a significant impact on the family migration of the floating population.(1)The level of economic development has a significant positive effect on the family migration level of the floating population in the eastern region.The eastern region has a relatively high level of economic development,more education and employment opportunities,a high degree of tolerance in cities,and relatively more areas that accept migrants.These factors promote the family level of migrants in the eastern region.(2)The Housing investment is one of the important factors that can effectively promote the family migration of the floating population.From the perspective of the needs of the family floating population,the family population has a higher demand for housing.Housing investment is an important factor that directly affects the housing market and can effectively increase the housing ownership rate of the floating population.(3)The government’s fiscal revenue and expenditure have a significant impact on the family level of the floating population.The higher the fiscal revenue,the better the degree of fiscal autonomy,and the better the degree of fiscal autonomy will improve the regional living environment,and at the same time help to enhance the marginal effect of the economic factors of the floating population.Therefore,government revenue has played a important role in promoting the family migration of the floating population.Second,the urban public resources and natural environment have different degrees of influence on the family migration level of the floating population.Urban built-up area has a significant negative effect on the family level of floating population.Although the urban construction land expands rapidly,this growth is extensive,the land use structure is unreasonable,and the use efficiency is not high,which makes the urbanization development of population and land unbalanced,which in turn becomes a resistance to population flow.The proportion of primary school students to teachers has a significant negative impact on the level of family migration.Abundant teacher resources and the improvement of high-quality teachers are conducive to increasing the schooling opportunities or improving the quality of education for the children of the floating population.Therefore,educational resources have a positive role in promoting the family migration of the floating population.Third,the influencing factors of the family migration level of the floating population have significant heterogeneity.(1)From the perspective of urban and rural areas,the impact of urban economic development level,housing investment,fiscal revenue,fiscal expenditure and education expenditure on the household mobility level of agricultural households is more significant than that of non-agricultural households,while educational resources(ordinary primary schools)Teacher-student ratio and teacher-student ratio in ordinary middle schools)have a more significant impact on household mobility of non-agricultural registered population than agricultural registered population.(2)From the perspective of inter-province,housing investment and fiscal revenue have a significant impact on the family migration level of the floating population in the province,and the growth of housing investment and fiscal revenue has a significant role in promoting the family migration level of the floating population in the province.Educational resources are an important factor in meeting the schooling needs of children of migrant families,and one of the macro factors that can effectively promote the familyization of migrants.(3)In terms of different regions,the family migration level of the floating population in the eastern region is most significantly affected by economic factors,while the central,western and northeastern regions are not significantly affected.The built-up area has a promoting effect on the family migration level of the floating population in the eastern region,while it has an inhibitory effect on the western and northeastern regions.There is a serious population outflow in the western and northeastern regions,but the urban construction land tends to be saturated,the area base is relatively large,the relationship between population and land is non-linear,and the allometric growth of population and land has become one of the main factors that inhibit the family migration of floating population.Fourth,the family migration pattern of population is affected by many factors.(1)The per capita expenditure of households has an inhibitory effect on the decisionmaking of the whole family mobility of the floating population,and the effects of individual income and per capita household income on the family-oriented mobility model are significantly different.(2)The type of housing has a significant positive impact on the family mobility of the floating population,and the migration distance has a negative effect on the family mobility.Inter-city and inter-county migrants within the province are more likely to choose whole family migration than interprovincial migrants.In terms of inflow location selection,the proportion of floating population within the province is relatively high in the western and northeastern regions,and the flow of family members in the western and northeastern regions is higher than that in the eastern and central regions.(3)The inter generational relationship within the family and other structural characteristics have a significant impact on family mobility.The ratio of elderly family support and the number of family generations have an inhibitory effect on family mobility.The number of elderly people and the number of generations will increase the burden of family support.Relatively high family support burden will increase the living cost of migrant families,reduce the life satisfaction of migrant population inflow places,and thus reduce the willingness of family mobility.(4)Medical insurance participation has a significant positive impact on the family mobility intention of floating population.Fifth,comparing the intention to settle down between the whole family and nonfamily migrants,the influencing factors have certain commonalities and some differences:(1)The family-based floating population has a relatively strong intention to live,among which the whole-family floating population has settled down.The proportion of intention to settle accounts for 68.9% of the total population,and the proportion of non-family floating population with the intention to settle is 68.7%.(2)The influencing factors of family migration and non-family migration have certain commonalities: demographic factors such as age,marriage,and education level have a significant impact on the floating population’s intention to live;the floating population’s intention to settle is affected by the floating time.The impact of migration and migration range is also significant.For the whole family and non-family migrants,the longer the migration time,the stronger the intention to settle down,and the farther the migration distance,the lower the intention to settle down;The stronger the intention to settle,followed by the northeast and central regions;from the perspective of city categories,megacities have a significant positive effect on the willingness to settle of the floating population,indicating that the megacities have a strong role in promoting the intention of the floating population to live,and the floating population prefers megacities.Variables such as employment status,occupational characteristics,nature of employment units and other employment characteristics have a significant impact on the willingness of floating population to stay.(3)There is a certain difference in the impact mechanism of whole family migration and non-family migration: the gender variable has no significant impact on the settlement intention of the whole family floating population,but has a significant impact on the non-family floating population.The female migrants in the non-family floating population are more willing to settle down;the household registration factor significantly affects the family floating population’s willingness to settle down,but has no significant impact on the non-family floating population;the impact of agricultural household registration on the whole family floating population’s intention to settle is: On the negative side,the non-agricultural household registered migrants have a stronger intention to settle down than the agricultural household migrants;in terms of employment characteristics,occupational types have a more significant impact on the household migrants’ intention to settle than non-household migrants,while the nature of the job unit has a more significant impact on the settlement intention of the non whole family floating population than the whole family floating population.Sixth,according to the marginal effect model at the time point,the education level has significantly and gradually promoted the settlement intention of the whole family floating population and the non whole family floating population.The role of megacities in promoting the migrant population’s intention to settle has been significantly weakened.In terms of housing choices,self-purchased houses,self-built houses and government low-rent housing have significantly improved the impetus for the floating population in the two migration patterns.The marginal effect of medical insurance on the floating population’s intention to settle increased from 0.0598 to0.0957,indicating that health protection is becoming more and more important for the floating population.The family juvenile dependency ratio has a significant role in promoting the resettlement intention of the whole family floating population. |
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