Research On The Labor Market Effect Of Delayed Retirement

China entered an aging society in 2000,and the aging degree continued to deepen.According to the data of the seventh census,the population aged 60 and above in China reached 264 million,accounting for 18.70% of the total population,which increased by nearly 5.5% compared with 13.26% in the data of the sixth census.The aging of the population has had a profound impact on China’s economic and social development and labor market.In order to alleviate the pressure of public finance and social security fund brought about by the aging population and the adverse impact of declining labor supply on economic growth,from the Third Plenary Session of the 18 th CPC Central Committee’s proposal of "studying and formulating the gradual delayed retirement age policy" to the national "14th Five-Year Plan" ’ implementing the gradual delayed statutory retirement age’,it shows that the implementation of the delayed retirement age policy is an inevitable choice for China to cope with the severe challenges of aging population.The research results of delayed retirement in China started in 2002,and after 2010,with the continuous deepening of the aging degree,the research results increased rapidly,and the problem of delayed retirement became more and more important in both theoretical exploration and practical reference.As an important system closely related to the labor market,the impact of delayed retirement is extensive,multidimensional and complex,which will have a profound impact on the overall operation and mechanism of the labor market.Delaying retirement age will affect employment and income,which are important indicators of labor market performance,and also affect human capital level,which is an important characteristic indicator of labor force,and then indirectly affect employment and income again.This study attempts to answer the question: Does delaying retirement age increase the supply of elderly labor force have crowding-out effect or creating effect on young labor force?What is the effect on the overall income level and income gap of the labor market? What impact will it have on human capital investment and human capital level? What impact will it have on micro-family decision-making? Let’s systematically explain the labor market effect of delaying retirement age.Firstly,starting with the definition of retirement and retirement system and delayed retirement age,this paper sorts out the basic theoretical connotations of human capital theory,economic growth theory,family economics theory,life cycle theory and other related theories,lays the theoretical framework of this study,sorts out and summarizes the empirical literature related to delayed retirement age,and clarifies the research methods and research boundaries of this issue.In the third chapter,the trend and characteristics of the aging population and the negative growth of the labor force in the process of population age structure change in China are analyzed,and the evolution process and characteristics of China’s retirement system from partial to comprehensive,from single to complete,as well as the process and basic content of delaying retirement policy are sorted out in chronological order.The fourth chapter reveals the mechanism of labor market effect of delayed retirement age.The impact of delayed retirement age on the labor market is complicated.Firstly,the overall theoretical framework of delayed retirement age on the labor market is constructed,and the comprehensive impact mechanism of delayed retirement age on employment,income and human capital is discussed.The analysis of the mechanism constitutes the theoretical basis of empirical test.The fifth chapter of the paper is an empirical test of the employment effect of delayed retirement age.Firstly,using the data of Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS),in order to overcome the endogenous problems caused by the lag of the explained variables,a dynamic panel model is built to empirically test the impact of delayed retirement age on employment,and an intermediary effect model is set up to test the mechanism of the employment effect of delayed retirement age.Based on the industry panel data,the impact of delayed retirement age on employment structure is tested.Secondly,using the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),combined with fuzzy breakpoint regression(FRD),instrumental variable method and benchmark regression method,this paper empirically tests the impact of delayed retirement age on the labor supply of spouses and children.According to the comprehensive empirical test results,the impact of delayed retirement age on employment is mainly reflected in the creative effect,but some industries have crowding-out effect,and at the same time,it will have an impact on the decision-making of family labor supply.The sixth chapter is an empirical test of the income effect of delayed retirement age.Firstly,in order to more accurately analyze the different quantile characteristics and function characteristics of delayed retirement age on income level and income gap,based on the macro statistical data of each province,quantile regression method is adopted to test the influence of delayed retirement age on income level and income gap,and the regional heterogeneity is also tested.According to the heterogeneity of workers,the profit and loss model of delayed retirement pension wealth is constructed.Based on the current pension insurance system,the influence direction and degree of main parameters on pension wealth are analyzed.Based on different parameter combinations,the profit and loss coefficient of pension wealth is calculated,and the sensitivity analysis is made.Secondly,in order to solve the two endogenous problems of intergenerational transfer: self-selection bias and simultaneous bias,we use the data of China Family Tracking Survey(CFPS)and the propensity score matching method(PSM)to evaluate the processing effect of delayed retirement age on intergenerational transfer,and ensure the robustness of the results through matching quality test,common support test and group difference analysis.According to the test results,delaying the retirement age will improve the comprehensive welfare level of workers,and will also have a certain impact on family intergenerational transfer.The seventh chapter of this paper is an empirical test of the effect of delayed retirement age on human capital.Based on the macro-statistical data of various provinces and the data of China Family Tracking Survey(CFPS),OLS,Panel Tobit model and bilateral stochastic frontier model(SFA)are used to test the impact of delayed retirement age on public and family human capital investment and the level of human capital.At the same time,the regional heterogeneity is also investigated,and the robustness test is carried out by changing index measurement,sub-sample regression and annual cross-sectional regression.Delaying the retirement age will increase the investment in human capital,and then improve the human capital level of the whole society.The empirical test of this study shows that delaying retirement age can improve the utilization of labor resources,the level of human capital and the economic development,which will lead to the increase of employment and income level.Delaying the retirement age can effectively alleviate the pressure of public finance and social security fund brought by the aging population and the adverse impact of declining labor supply on economic growth.Therefore,it is suggested to implement the policy of flexibly delaying the retirement age,improve the dynamic adjustment mechanism of pension,and improve the socialized service system for the aged.