Analysis Of The Effect Of Delayed Retirement On Birth Rate And Labor Supply

China's current retirement system is still approved in principle at the second meeting of the Standing Committee of the Fifth National People's Congress on May 24,1978,and is still in effect "Interim Measures of the State Council on the Placement of Old,Weak,Sick and Disabled Cadres" and the "State Council Interim Measures for Workers' Retirement and Resignation(Guo Fa[1978]No.104).At that time,the life expectancy of the population was less than 50 years old,and now the national conditions have undergone tremendous changes."China Health and Pension Report" shows that by the end of 2015,China's population aged 60 years and over reached 220 million,and the proportion of the total population is expected to rise from about 16%in 2015 to about 33%in 2050.Coupled with the strict implementation of the family planning policy,China's population growth rate has continued to decline.World Bank data shows that since 1960,China's birth rate per 1,000 people has fallen from 43.37%in 1963 to 12.43%in 2017.In the long run,China will surely face the problems of severe aging and labor shortage.Therefore,on November 12,2013,the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China adopted the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Major Issues in Comprehensively Deepening Reform",which pointed out:to study and formulate a gradual delay retirement policy.That is,walk slowly through small steps,postponing several months every year,and gradually postponing to a reasonable retirement age.But the policy has not yet been launched.And implement the "comprehensive two children"policy.While alleviating the labor shortage,encourage childbirth and increase the birth rate of the population.Based on the above background,this study proposes to study delayed retirement,population birth rate and labor supply at the same time,construct an Overlapping Generation Model(OLG)with the internal logic of the three,and focus on the social vision of "supporting the old,growing up with the young,and using the strong",Using Threshold Regression and Nonrandomized Discontinuity Design to conduct empirical analysis on the impact of delayed retirement on the birth rate and labor supply,respectively.Among them,the threshold regression uses the provincial panel data of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)from 2005 to 2017.Through the OLG model analysis,it is concluded that the impact of delayed retirement on the birth rate of the population is related to the level of family pension.Therefore,the family pension is selected as the threshold variable,the birth rate of the resident population is the explained variable,and the proportion of the urban elderly working is the explanatory variable for threshold regression.This move is a theoretical expansion of the OLG model research,which enriches the OLG model application ideas and the theoretical basis for delayed retirement.The Nonrandomized Discontinuity Design uses 2015 data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)database,with retirement age as a grouping variable,retirement rate and labor supply as the outcome variable,and selects personal and family factors,economic conditions,and health factors,a total of 7 driving factors are used to perform Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity(FRD)for men and women,respectively.The results show that there is a single threshold effect on the impact of delayed retirement on the birth rate of the population.When the threshold variable family pension level is lower than the threshold of 11.9,delayed retirement will promote the growth of the birth rate of the population;when the threshold variable is higher than the threshold,it will hinder the growth of the birth rate of the population.But from the absolute value,the positive influence is greater than the negative influence.The Nonrandomized Discontinuity Design finds breakpoints for women aged 55 and 59 who jump upwards at a retirement rate of 20%and 15%respectively.The driving factors are ranked in order of the degree of driving from small to large:marital status,receiving social security funds,the number of independent children living in the economy,and whether they have economic contacts with their children,but the driving degree of each driving factor at the 59-year-old breakpoint is less than 55 years old;However,men only have a breakpoint of jumping down at the age of 63,with a jump of about 10%.The driving factors in ascending order of driving degree are marital status,number of children living together with economically independent,physical health,education level,and mental health.There are breakpoints in the labor supply of women 60 years old and men 69 years old that jump down significantly.The jump range is about 10%for women and 7%for men.The driving factors for women's 60-year-old breakpoints in ascending order are physical health status,number of children living together with economically independent,and social security fund receipt status;The ascending order of the driving factors of men's 69-year-old breakpoints is as follows:the number of children living together with economically independent,receiving social security funds,physical health,education level,and mental health.Since the age at which the labor supply jumps significantly downward is higher than the current legal retirement age,an appropriate delay in retirement can ease the labor supply.In view of the above conclusion,it is suggested that the maximum legal retirement age for women can be delayed by 5 years,that is,60 years,and the maximum legal retirement age for men can be delayed by 10 years,but it is better to delay to 65 years in order to avoid the psychological difference between men and women.However,policies should be implemented flexibly,taking into account many factors such as job type,family structure,and regional social security level.And continue to improve the medical system,continue to promote the process of TCM medical insurance,develop new pension models,create new nursing homes,thereby reducing the level of family pension,liberating the young and middle-aged labor,and increasing labor supply.The full study has practical significance for the government to formulate a progressive pension policy,promote the birth rate of the population and increase the supply of labor.