The Dynamic Analysis And Forecasting Of Ecological Footprint In Hangzhou

It is the key in evaluating district sustainable development to determine whether the living condition of the mankind overrun the carrying capacity of eco-system or not. Ecological Footprint (EF) method can be used for calculating the degree of the sustainable development. It determines the using conditions of the eco-system, by checking the consummation and the capacity of the natural capital, then judges whether the development of a region or a country is sustainable. This method has caused the strong repercussion in the various countries since proposed at the beginning of 90's in the 20 centuries, then it is applied at different spatial scales and different social model, and its theory method and calculation model are developing and improving rapidly.According to the characteristics of Hangzhou, the paper discussed the EF calculation method, then the improved EF model was used to assess the sustainability of social and economic from 1988 to 2007 for Hangzhou. The change tendency of EF in Hangzhou was analyzed for the last 20 years. Based on this analysis, the potential changes of the EF and Ecological Capacity (EC) was predicted for 2008-2012.The results showed that:①The balance between EF and EC seems to be breakdown. The EF per person grew from 1.1561hm~2 in 1988 to 2.22333hm~2 in 2007. The total EF grew from 697.4451×104hm~2 to 1747.979×10~4hm~2, increased about 290%.②Its EC per person changed very slowly, and the number was about 1.55hm~2/cap in recent twenty years.③Hangzhou was on the condition of Ecological Remainder (ER) from 1988 to 1994, and the ER decreased gradually; the Ecological Deficit (ED) in Hangzhou increased gradually from 0.00707hm~2/cap in 1995 to 0.95481hm~2/cap in 2007.④By comparing the results of EF calculations of Hangzhou with that of other regions, the status of Hangzhou's development has been significantly in high level with EF 0.426318hm~2/104GDP in the 2007.⑤The predict results by the regression models show that the EF and the ED will continue to increase during 2008～2012. Finally, the paper put forward to some constructive advices and countermeasure of reducing EF need and improving the EC for there exists concrete problem in the sustainable development process of Hangzhou.