Study On Climate Evaluation Technology Of Risk Regionalization Of Meteorological Disaster In Hebei Province

In recent decades, there were frequent occurrences of the extreme climate events and meteorological disasters under the background of global warming. Many researchers have taken part in the research works for disaster risk zoning and assessments. These events and disasters have significant impacts on industrial and agricultural productions and local economic developments. For improving the serving abilities that meteorological departments supply to the sustainable development of social economics and supplying scientific supports and policy making to major functional-region developments of Hebei province, the analysis of meteorological disaster background, distribution, major risk regionalization and assessments are required.In this paper we chose fundamental climate observing data of 142 stations from 1971 to present and analyzed basic climate background of temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind and hails in the during 1971-2000 and 1998-2007 respectively.On the base of Hebei multi-years climate observation series, the meteorological disaster information and the social, economic and spatial information are collected, by using mathematical model and quantitative analysis, combining GIS technology, in this paper we analyzed the climate background and distributions of the main meteorological disasters of Hebei province. We researched the processes and characteristics of different meteorological disasters, and the comprehensive evaluation and division adopted by the method of various meteorological disaster risk evaluation.By using GIS technique, natural disaster risk index method, weighted comprehensive evaluation method and analytic hierarchy processes, the districts of agricultural drought and flood disaster risk was given. Finally, in this paper comprehensive analysis results and the risk management have been proposed.On the assessment of agricultural drought disaster risk, we used the precipitation anomaly percentage of drought as agricultural drought risk standard index established by national weather service. We used the fuzzy clustering analysis methods to evaluate and district the crop drought disaster risk quantitatively, comparatively and objectively. According to the basic theories of agricultural meteorology, climatology and natural geography, taking a major agricultural crop as the research object, adopting meteorological-crop production disaster risk analysis and evaluation method, the method of fuzzy clustering method and the GIS technology, we made a quantitative analysis. The data sets used including climatic data, agricultural economic statistics, agricultural disaster data and spatial geographical data (such as terrain zoning, soil zoning, distributions of corn production, etc.). When districting agricultural drought disaster risk, we chose the frequencies of drought disaster occurring in corn growing region in Hebei, and corn yields and the drought disaster risk index of corn as the main impacting factors, conducting the preliminary distribution of drought risk analysis and districts, completing provincial-wide corn drought disaster risk, to establish protections of disasters reasonably under the global warming conditions, to improve the yields of corn, and to supply objective decision making for government in adjusting cropping structure..On the flood disaster risk assessment, according to the methods of natural disaster risk index, we selected assessment indexes respectively for four flood disaster risk influencing factors-risk factors, exposure factors, vulnerability factor and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, obtaining the zoning diagrams of county-level flood disaster risk by utilizing non-vector index transitions and flood disaster risk models. Results showed that the main flood risk in Hebei province concentrated in parts of Yanshan and Taihang Mountains; the regions of extreme exposure distributed in urban with rapid developing in economics; regions of extreme vulnerability mainly distributed in northern mountains of Zhangjiakou and Chengde; and regions of weaker abilities for disaster prevention centered in the north Bashang area. We concluded, by analyzing the four factors listed above, that the maximum risks of flood disaster occurring mainly centered in Tangshan, Qinhuangdao, Shijiazhuang, Handan and Wuan, and minimum in northern Zhangjiakou and the plain on the east to Taihang Mountain.On the flood disaster risk division, incorporating the research results, based on the technical analysis, combining flood risk analysis and GIS technology, using basic meteorological data and social economic development data within the scope of Hebei province, we analyzed the regional climate resources and common meteorological disaster risk, evaluated the climate resource and distribution characteristics of meteorological disasters, used flood disaster risk indexes (deliver up appropriate risk index, waterlogging/business FDRI) to assess the flood risk degree in 142 counties in Hebei province, and plotted the zoning diagrams of flood disaster risk in counties of Hebei province.Finally, in this paper we proposed relative measures and suggestions of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation and the ability to improve the respond to climate changes.