Study On Water Resource Carrying Capacity In Kalpin County

Kalpin County is located in the northern margin of the Tarim Basin, a region formed by the low sides of the southwest ridges of the Tianshan Mountains.The climate is drought, there is a serious water shortages that water resources per capita is very few. The distribution of water resourses to populations, to productivity and to resources is not satisfied, the ecological environment is relatively fragile. Kalpin County as a very dry region has a sever water shortage that water quantity, quality and its distribution has been influencing and restricting the county people's living standards,and it becomes a bottleneck in industrial and agricultural sustainable development. How to evaluate and judge the Kalpin County water resources carrying capacity, then to establish development strategy corresponding with water resources, have important practical significance for the relationships between coordinating Kalpin County Water Resources and sustainable economic development.The research mainly includes: based on understanding the concept and theory of water resources carrying capacity, under the guidance of the view of sustainable development,and in the basis of water supply and demand relationship of Kalpin County, and in the background of socio-economic development trends of Kalpin, the socio-economic development characteristics of the Kalpin county, characteristics of water resources, water resources development and utilization were evaluated through field survey and data analysis combining with qualitative and quantitative methods to find out the main probles exiting in the Kalpin County water resources development and utilization the principal component analysis of selected 11 important factors were avaluated In the basis of Water resources characteristics and analysis of factors influencing bearing capacity of water resources, using SPSS software, the county's water resources carrying capacity from1995 to 2008 were comprehensively evaluated., Kalpin Countys water resources development measures was established on the evaluation results.This paper is divided into six chapters: The first chapter describes the concept of carrying capacity of water resources, characteristics, research methods, research progress. Chapter II of this study elucidates the purpose and significance ,the dynamic thesis content and technology road map of the study of water carrying capacity of demestic and foreign studies. The third chapter briefly describes geographical status ,socio-economic status, characteristics and status of water resources of the study area. in the chapter four, in the basis of the current situation of water supply of Kalpin County, water supply was forcasted and supply and demand of water sources were analysed. In Chapter V, suitable evaluation index system and evaluation model of the county's water resources were established from the perspective of sustainable development, and also Kalpin County water resource caring capacy were evaluated, Chapter VI provides Sustainable Development Strategies and recommendations for Kalpin County Water Resources.(1)On the basis of the above conclusions summarized in this paper look at two elements: Kalpin County were in the population projections, domestic water demand, agricultural water demand forecasting, industrial water demand projections based on the analysis of water supply and demand balance, the results show that the total water demand in agricultural water demand of the total water demand of 97 % of the total water supply can not meet the region's total water demand.(2)Water features in Kalpin County bearing capacity factors and water resources based on evaluation of 11 selected factors, using principal component analysis method Kalpin County for 14 years a comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity, which can be in the study area within the comprehensive evaluation results, the results show Kalpin County water resources carrying capacity is not high, uneven distribution of water resources of time, water capacity is not optimistic, development potential is also smaller, so water capacity is very small, which requires We are looking for a suitable method to improve Kalpin County water resource, the sustainable development of water resources.