Study On The Economic Evaluation About The Extension Project Of A Certain Navy Yard's Dock

The dock of a certain navy yard was build in 1971. It has played an important role in naval vessels repairing for thirty .years. Due to long time use and restricted by design, this dock can not meet the need of large naval vessels repairing now, and must be extended for keeping pace with the naval modernization. At the moment, the yard has completed the technological evaluation of the dock's extension project with the project design unit. This dissertation is based upon the two technological alternatives that have been formed. By means of the analysis from the forecast of naval vessels repairing and the benefits-cost of the project, the paper evaluates and compares the 2 options, then obtains the conclusion of economic evaluation, and provides the basis for making the dscision about the extension project.This dissertation has five chapters. The first one is overall circumstances of the extension project of a certain navy yard's dock. Through analyzing the dock's circumstances in the past and at the moment, two alternatives that can improve the dock's ability to repair naval vessels in varying degrees are described.The second chapter is the forecast of naval vessels that will be repaired in the dock. Through studying on the economic forecast and uncertain factor, combining with the data at the moment and the circumstances in the future, the type, repairing frequency and repairing grade of the naval vessels that will be repaired in the dock are forecasted. The main work is to study how the Markov Process can be applied toforecast the repairing frequency of naval vessels. The mathematical model is established, when the estimated data of the mathematical model tallies with the actual situation of repairing frequency of naval vessels, the mathematical model of Markov Process is used to forecast the yearly repairing frequency of different naval vessels.The third chapter is the benefits and cost of the extension project of the dock. The benfits of this project consist of three contents. The first one is increment of the business income. The second one is decrement of the expanditures. The third one is improvement of the dock's ability to repair the naval vessels.The cost of this project consists of two contents. The first one is cost of investment. The second one is cost of operation.The fourth chaper is economic evaluation of the two alternatives of the dock's extension project. NPV and IRR are selected as the indicators of economic evaluation. The two alternatives of the project are evaluated both financially and nationally economically, and risk analysis is done. When the two alternatives are all feasible both in financial affairs evaluation and national economy evaluation, the comparison is taken between the first alternative and the second alternative with the indicators of economic evaluation.The fifth chapter is the conclusion of economic evaluation and suggestion about the project. The extension scale of the dock is larger in the second alternative than in the first alternative. The conclusion of this paper is that the second alternative is better.