Study On Spatial Decision Support System For Comprehensive Disaster Prevention Plan For Water Supply System

The purpose of the thesis is to illustrate the main contents of comprehensive disaster prevention plan for water supply system and to examine the approaches involved in compiling plan. Moreover, the Spatial Decision Support System for Comprehensive Disaster Prevention Plan (CDPP_SDSS) developed on the basis of GIS and DSS is introduced in details and demonstrated with the data of Yantai Economy & Technology Development Area (YTETDA).The main work of this study includes five parts as follows:1) The objectives and primary contents of comprehensive disaster prevention plan (CDPP) and the relationship between CDPP and other urban plans are firstly discussed based on present researches on urban disaster predictions, disaster mitigation management and disaster prevention plans. Then aiming at water supply system, particular specification is further made about technical routine of compiling CDPP and major parts of CDPP such as identifying principal disasters, analyzing disaster risks, ascertaining fortified criteria and making blue print.2) The analysis of disaster risks are executed in allusion to three important natural disasters, namely earthquake, geological disasters and flood, resulting from disaster identification for water supply system in YTETDA. During the whole process, a quantitative approach for seismic risk analysis, which involves seismic hazard analysis, seismic vulnerability analysis and lost estimation, is concretely explained. Meanwhile, a semi-quantitative method, called fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, for flood and geological disasters is also illuminated in which more emphases are placed on the establishment of evaluation indexes and subjection functions.3) An optimized approach to anti-seismic fortified criteria for water supply system is introduced in this dissertation. In this method, sums of direct seismic loss and defense cost, called expected total loss, under different seismic defense intensities are calculated and then compared. The seismic intensity corresponding to the least expected total loss can be regarded as the optimal defense intensity and requirements of construction can also be suggested.4) In order to get more efficient aided decision-making support, a decision support analysis model for CDPP for water supply system, named WDSM, is proposed based on the previous study in this paper. Firstly, the synthesized disaster hazard in every plot is evaluated in WDSM based on the results of disaster risk analyses and analytic hiberarchy process (AHP) and expressed by synthesized disaster index LDI. During the calculation of LDI, the primary disaster of each plot can also be identified as well. Secondly, synthesized disaster index RDI and major disaster of each route possibly for water pipe plan are further obtained by using spatial superposition analysis of Arcview9.2. Based on RDI, the selection of route for plan is made on the condition of layout restrictions and net connectivity analysis of GIS to contribute the advised layout of water pipes. Finally, the aided blue print of CDPP for water supply system will be achieved with the combination of advised layout and defense requirements and suggestions which are from major disaster analysis and demands of defense criteria.5) The study proposed a spatial decision support system framework for CDPP after the specific introduction of the development and characteristics of GIS, DSS and SDSS, and the full explanation of advantage of combining SDSS and CDPP for water supply system. This system was developed on Arcview9.2 and Oracle 9i with VB programming language and AO technology. In this thesis, the general design of the system and the concrete design of structures and functions of each modules embedded in CDPP_SDSS are narrated and demonstrated with the real data of YTETDA.Comparing with related researches in this field, the three main innovations of this study are: 1) to firstly clarify the specific contents of CDPP and illustrate the technical routine of compiling CDPP through the example of CDPP for water supply system; 2) to propose the decision support analysis model for CDPP for water supply system-WDSM, which can automatically present an advised blue print for water pipe plan from the view of disaster prevention and mitigation by using AHP method and spatial superposition analysis and net connectivity analysis of GIS; 3) to firstly apply SDSS technology to the field of comprehensive disaster prevention and independently develop the spatial decision support system for CDPP for water supply system-CDPP_SDSS.