| With the development of society, transportation plays a more and more important role in social economical progress, at the same time transportation is rapidly progressing too. At present, a golden season for economical development of Jilin Province is coming with China entry into WTO and economy development with high speed. "The development of transportation must have precedence over that of economy", now Jilin transportation have a unprecedented chance. Moreover, harmonious development of economy and transportation are based on good developing plan and management of transportation. As the most important component of transportation, the developmental strategy of road transportation will have direct influence on the quality of transportation, consequently on the level of economy. Road transportation forecast is the important base of constituting the developmental strategy, and more reasonable and effective forecast model will make more exact and practical forecast result. Therefore, in the time that economy develops with high speed, it's more practical to research the forecast model of road transportation and put forward development strategy of Jilin Province's road transportation, which will provide necessary policy guarantee for the development of road transportation and the progress of economy of Jilin Province.In this paper, the status of the development of road transportation is surveyed, aimed at actual Jilin problem in existence are analyzed, the root of the problems is found. The main factors of the development of road transportation is analyzed detailedly, the road transportation forecast model are established, the development rend of Jilin Province's road transportation is analyzed on the base of forecast model. The development of foreign road transportation is studied detailedly, and valuable experiences of foreign advanced national road transportation, in the end, developmental strategy of Jilin Province's road transportation is put forward.In this paper, after the survey of the status of Jilin Province's road transportation , some problems are found in existence, as following:①the number infrastructure is small and the level of technique is low; ②the retaining quantity of conveyance is small, the structure of conveyance is irrational, the technique performance of conveyance is slow; ③the organization structure of road transportation is not very rational; ④the security problem is outstanding; ⑤the law system of road transportation is distempered, the innovation of management system is laggard, the management is not standard; ⑥the service level is bad.There are some chiefly reasons for these problems, as following: ①the historical effect of it; ②the factor of development process; ③the strategy emphases of road transportation aren't adjusted in time; ④the reason of management system.These are many factors affect the development of road transportation, moreover,because of different economy and the nature condition, there are different factors. When forecast models are established, the main factors which affect the development of road transportation of Jilin Province are considered, such as: entry into WTO, development strategy of national economy, the adjustment of economy structure, the adjustment of industry structure, population increasing, level of compositive transportation, development trend of conveyance, etc. The quantity of road transportation of Jilin Province is forecasted by using the established forecast model, and this provides the quantificational research foundation for establishing the developmental strategy of road transportation. There are lots of methods for road transportation forecast, for example: time series method, grey system method, regression analysis method, elasticity factor method, growth curve method,econometric method,etc. Different models can be established with different methods. The normal models are established, they are: elasticity factor model in this paper, binary linearity regression model, time series odel. But they have the same sh...
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