Study On Methods For Forecasting Urban Residents Trip Mode Split

The definition of transportation mode split is one of the most important part oftransportation planning and policy establishment. It would impact on the tripefficiency and the amount of land use area for urban transportation and weather itcan offer more choices for the people who live in the city. If the splitting oftransportation mode is reasonable, the limited city space can be used effectivelyand the congested city transport will become less crowed. The mode splitforecasting is the one of the most important part of city transportation planning anddemand forecasting. The existing mode split forecasting model has muchlimitations, so it is necessary for us to have a deeper study on it.There are many factors that have an impact on the choice of residents tripmode split, but the relationship between them is not just linear combined simply.Not only the regressive model but also the other methods, does not considerate thecomplex relationship of every transportation mode. The thesis mainly studies theforecasting of trip mode choice of urban residents that are about everytransportation mode split forecasting. First of all, the thesis analyzes the influentfactors of urban residents trip mode choice and the macroscopically forecastmethod. Then the thesis tries to expect the complex relationship between influentfactors, and which can be carried out through artificial nerve network and Matlabtoolbox to establish the transportation mode choice forecast model.Based on the above content, the forecasting methods and models are explicitlyexpounded with five chapters in the process of the study. The main idea in everychapter is listed as followed.Chapter one introduces the purpose and meaning about this study, currentsituations in domestic and overseas. On this basis, study thoughts and forecastingmethods are explicit.