The Urban Road Traffic System Performance Evaluation Based On Analysis Of Reliability

The problem of urban transportation has become an important factor that restricts normal urban function exertion and urban continuous development, and it needs to be solved urgently. As a precondition to solve the problem of urban transportation, evaluating transportation performance validly becomes more significant.At present, the internal or overseas researches on transportation performance have been limited in normality. The indexes (for example, saturation, speed, delay, travel time, and so on) are mostly non-probability parameters, but transportation system which is affected by transit provider and demander's reciprocity. Especially, the urban traffic network has close relations with driver's selective actions. So transportation system has more uncertain ingredient. It will be more suitable to adopt probability parameters to describe the traffic flow characteristic, and it will bring some trouble to transportation planning and transportation management. Established in the aspects of flexibility, validity, and service and based on concluding and analyzing current various evaluative indexes, the paper establishes and FAHP(Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process) model based on reliability.The evaluation system of transportation performance based on reliability not only evaluates the stability of exiting road network performance availably, but also can estimate and instruct intending road network performance by bring it into intending road network planning and design. This evaluation system of transportation performance has comparative characteristic that can be applied to discriminate the different city transportation performance, consequently to find disfigurements of urban transportation and help urban development.