Risk Analysis On Instablity Of Dam And Exploitation And Appliance Of Evaluate System For Reservoir's Sustainable Development

Sustainable Development has become a global development strategy. As far as water conservancy is concerned, sustainable development is also very important. Reservoir is an important facility which can reallocate the natural water across time and the space, so, how to evaluate reservoirs' sustainable development conditions is a top urgent problem to be resolved. When we build a water conservation project system, complicated technology, immense investment must be put in for it, and there are many uncertain factors from nature and society that could make influence on it. Thus, if we want to make the development of a reservoir to be sustainable, analyses on risk of it must be done to supply effective proof for the make it get rid of danger.Taking Shahe reservoir for an example, the text makes a risk analysis on instability of the main dam of Shahe reservoir, and calculates the probability. And an analysis on circulation, management and environment and social economy development condition of the surrounding ecosystem is made. Based on the existing research of sustainable development, experts' opinions and Mathematical Statistics analysis, the author brought forward an indication system suitable for reservoirs' sustainable development. This system is made up of 4 first class indexes, 13 second class indexes, 38 foundational indexes. Based on the international and national standard, "the agenda of China in 21 centuries", the modernize of Chinese water conservancy, the corresponding numbers in "the reservoir great dam safe evaluation lead", together with the optimal value and satisfaction value in this inquisition, this article acquires target values. Then, combining with practical data, we can acquire index numbers of all foundational indexes.This text use AHP to calculate the proportion and numbers of every comprehensive sustainable development indexes. Then, the total evaluation is made into the evaluate system of reservoirs' sustainable development with Delphi. And evaluate the sustainable development with the system. The level of sensitivity of foundational indexes is analyzed at last.