Fuzzy Mathematical Comprehensive Evaluation On Water Resources Inadequacy Degree In Yongding River Region Shanxi Province

Water recource which is one of controlling factors of ecological environmental is basic natrual resource, and else that is the strategic economical resources and is a organic constituent of country comprehensive national strength. The water resources is affecting the global environment and the development day by day. Along with the economic construction is making omni-directional, large-scale decelopment fast, the condition on lacking of industrial and agricultural water use and urban household water use intensifies day by day. The water rescoures inadequacy degree, that already bacame an important index to scale the region sustainable development, is an important subject in current rescource science, especially water rescource research.This article embarked from present situation of water resources of Yongding River in Shanxi Province, unified the national economy development tendency of Yongding River, and based on water resources plan disposition report(Yongding River region) of drainage basin subarea in Shanxi Province in 2006, this article analyzed and forecasted water resources inadequacy degree in the three planning years of 2004,2010,2015 under this plan implementation condition, and bringed forward problems and suggestion of existing plans in the foundation. The research contents mostly included that:(1) Base on refering to a lot of domestic and foreign literatures, this article analyzed the concept of water resources inadequacy, studied existing evaluating method, and analogized these methods.(2) Taking the fuzzy mathematical comprehensive evaluation as evaluation method, we analyzed water resources inadequacy degree of Yongding River in Shanxi Province in recent ten years.The local water resources quantity, the social economic level of development, the water supply level, the demand of water, water deficiency and the water environment were selected in this estimate of water resources inadequacy degree as first class indexes and 24 second class indexes were also setted up. We used the weight to express the influence of various factors to higher authority indexes, and used the fuzzy mathematical comprehensive evaluation to evaluate gradationally.(3) By analtsizing the reasons of the water resources inadequacy, we gave some suggestion to lighten the water resources inadequacy degree.According to this water resources disposition plan in 2004,2010,2015, the water resources inadequacy degree of the Yongding River region in Shanxi Piovince sibling"inadequacy". But according to the reflection of target subordination, the inadequacy degree will reduce gradually. This plan disposition of water resources conformed to the requirement of the water resources continuous development. However, there were some insufficiencies which needed to further improve.The results of research indicate: in the three planning years of 2004,2010,2015, the target subordination of the water resources inadequacy degree are: 0.6375,0.6275,0.6025, which indicate the water resources inadequacy degree is reducing, but the speed is lower. It shows in the use and plan of water resources, there are shortcomings in some aspects. This article has made some analysis on the shortcomings in the planing, and has give the suggestion in five aspects:(1) Strengthen development and use of the non- traditional water resources;(2) Control the mining of ground water further;(3) Attach importance to the development project of the clean energy, reduce water resources pollution because of mining coal;(4) Adopt the vigorous measures and reduce the phenomenon of wasting water resources;(5) Use the method of economy, law and so on, provide the guarantee for the continuous development of water resources.