Study On Construction Risk Management Based On System Dynamics

System Dynamics ,which is put forward by Dr. Forrester in Massachusetts Institute of Technology ,is a computer simulation technology.Construction management covers many relationships.So,it is a complex dynamics system which contains sorts of information reflections.Just because it is characterized by dynamics,complexity and multiplex feedback,the system is adapt to system dynamics approach to study.Compared to the traditional method,which is mainly aimed to object management, system dynamics is aimed to stratagem to describe the project through building models and it is indispensable complementarity to the traditional method,because the new method emphrases project macro-control and analysis of hardly measurable complex factors.Risk management is one of the important contents during significant construction management.According to the construction procedure, it is more effective to analyze and manage risk in different stages through risk management charts.So, this paper chooses project production stage to study risk management in the contractor angle. Then, the feasibility and advantage beyond comparison of system dynamics in risk management is discussed based on risk management steps as followed:(1) Risk identification.In this stage, risk management feedback model is built based on system dynamics.Here, take project time as an example to detaily identify the time risk reasons , the results caused by it and influence brought by risk interior adjustment.At last, it is testified that the feasibility and advantage beyond comparison of system dynamics in risk identification.(2) Risk estimation and assessment.According to risk identification feedback loops, turn the feedback loops into risk flow chart to estimate and assess risk.In this part, it is detailedly discussed that how to build the risk assessment models. Because of problems such as data shortage and immature thinking, the final result is not ideal. But through building models, the author testifies the feasibility of using system dynamics to estimate and assess risk.(3) Risk control. An effective risk control method can be found through system dynamics. Reducing one risk can lighten or raise other risk and this can be seen in system dynamics models. After thinking out the risk solution, managers can input it to check its risk effect and then improve the flow chart to make it a time risk control model.