The Predicting Model And Method Research Of Urban Railway Transportation Flow

Preliminary studies in any project play an important role in guiding. Urban rail transportation, as one of the greatest urban infrastructure construction projects, and flow forecast is the key, is more important. The traditional four-phase methods, with their advantages, are popular in the country's urban rail traffic flow forecasting applications. It's necessary to consummate the traditional methods.The preparatory work of four-phase flow prediction method—transportation cell allocation was studied earlier in this paper. Follow the general principles and with transportation station for the center to refine transportation cell. In order to the gather passengers and the district of rail transit network combined more closely. Based on the analysis and summarizes about the current state of flow forecasting models, the author brings a new flow forecasting model: "early fast-track"→"present condition OD"→"long-term fast-track". The pattern makes preparatory work of OD Investigation a major research content on the basis of detailed travel survey. By the analysis, the method will determine the form about long-term results of the rapid rail line network. In this paper, the author makes use of:"trip generation"→"transportation method division"→"trip distribution"→"traffic assignment" to study the various steps of the four-phase flow prediction method. Its purpose is to separate the track traffic flow as soon as possible from the overall passengers in order to reduce the workload of late. In the stage of trip generation, traffic area will be refined in different nature of use. The development strength of traffic area is as the important indicators to get the number of passenger flow respectively. Transportation method division was study in three stages: first of all, separating the traffic flow which has no competition with rail traffic, and then use the impact of two important indicators of travel time and travel costs, and gradually separate track traffic flow from the passengers that has competitive relationship, finally, talking into other factors to amend the results. Trip distribution model is to use gravity thinking, the passengers flow will be distributed to urban rail transit line by the same purpose of travel. Finally, according to the maximize theory to the passengers to distribute the urban rail transit passenger flow.