Study On Traffic Demand Forecast And Traffic Organization Method Of Largescale Winter Games

While the urban transportation was developing, China was chosen as site of various international large-scale winter games in succession. In January 2007, the 6th Asia Winter Games was held in Changchun and in 2009, the 24th World University Games (short for Universiade) will be held in Harbin. By previous experience and lessons home and abroad, it is one of the significant conditions to guarantee succession of winter games that whether traffic condition traffic is well and whether traffic organization is efficient. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to make practical and feasible traffic organization schemes, which also meet the special traffic demand of large-scale winter games.The paper took traffic characteristic of large-scale winter games as basis and the breakthrough point, took traffic organization method of large-scale winter games as extension and development, and took traffic forecast method and simulation and evaluation on traffic organization schemes as study core.From the aspects of number of nations, scale, number of participants, the paper summarized large-scale winter games in recent six years. Based on summarization of traffic characteristic of domestic and international large-scale winter games in similar, the paper made a quantitative analysis on traffic characteristic of large-scale winter games from traffic composition, and time-space distribution of traffic volume, vehicles share rate three aspects, combining to investigated data of the 6th Asia Winter Games from Changchun. Then, the paper made a qualitative summary.Based on traditional traffic demand forecast, four-phase method, the paper studied the method of traffic demand forecast in detail. The paper brought forward four-phase method traffic demand forecast method aiming at large-scale games, which were traffic generation based on stadium and gymnasium, traffic model split based on traffic survey, traffic distribution based on population and hotel distribution in each traffic zone of the city hosted the large-scale games and traffic assignment based on road impedance and turning proportion in the intersection. Then, the paper verified this method combining with the 6th Asia winter games that hosted in Changchun in January in 2007. From the aspect of traffic flow organization on opening, parking organization, the paper discussed traffic organization schemes of Asia winter games in Changchun, the 9th National Games in Guangzhou and the 10th National Games in Nanjing, and compared these schemes. Then, the paper analyzed merits and faults of these sachems and studied the methods that worth learning. In this foundation, the paper studied the traffic organization method of large-scale winter games, according to traffic flow wave theory, determined the scope of traffic organization on the analysis of congestion and dissipation process and discussed the traffic organization method of large-scale winter games from region organization, route organization, node organization, parking organization and emergency traffic organization.Aiming at smoothness, comfort, rationality and economy, the paper established Evaluating indicator system of traffic organization scheme and calculated the weight of each index using analytic hierarchy process. Based on those, the paper obtained quantized value of each index by simulation of traffic organization schemes, establishing overall evaluation model of traffic organization scheme of large-scale winter gamesBased on the results above on, taking the 24th World University Games that will be held in Harbin in February 2009 as example, the paper analyzed traffic supply and traffic demand during Universiade in Harbin and brought forward pointed traffic organization schemes. Then, the paper took simulation and evaluation study on traffic organization schemes to select the optimum scheme.The paper obtained innovative results as follows: it made a quantitative analysis on traffic characteristic of large-scale winter games based on investigated data of the 6th Asia Winter Games, brought forward traffic demand forecast method aiming at large-scale games, according to traffic flow wave theory, determined the scope of traffic organization and established evaluating indicator system of traffic organization scheme aiming at smoothness, comfort, rationality and economy.