Theory And Model Study On Rational Allocation Of Water Resources In The North Bay Of Guangxi

With population growth and economic development, human had a great demand for water resources. large-scale development and utilization of water resources changed water-ecological compound system. especially since the 20th century, 80s, worsening resources and environmental crisis, many countries and regions were under threat by the severe water shortage and ecological environment quality deterioration, which had become the 21st century's most serious challenges.With the basic guiding principle of sustainable development, using system theory, this thesis will explore the complex system of water resources systems from the potential of water resources development, the degree of water resource carrying capacity and the affecting elements such as national economy of a regional. To the rapid economic development in the North Bay Economic Zone as the study area, theory of rational allocation of water resources was discussed, and building the Water Resources Allocation Model in North Bay Economic Zone of Guangxi was the key point.Firstly this article gives a brief introduction to the main research areas and technical routes involved in this dissertation, by comprehensively reviewing the recent development of the domestic and international research situations on the optimal allocation of water resources, together with the complexity theories and methods, etc.Then the theory on"Quantity-Quality-Effect"water resources allocation is proposed and studied. A precise proposition including the physical geography, socio-economic, river systems and water area, climate and meteorology, water resources, water quality and water resources development and utilization in North Bay Economic Zone of Guangxi is attempted to be described. Based on these conditions, forecasting water demand is studied at the situation of economic development by leaps and bounds. Then water demand of the northern Gulf Economic Zone in Guangxi is predicted by the planning and future level year.Lastly from the perspective of dynamics system, the water resources system of North Gulf Economic Zone in Guangxi was generalized and the model is set up. Also a multi-level, multi-objective and decision making approach is applied to solving the model.according to the solving results, water supply and demand equilibrium is analyzed in North Bay Economic Zone of Guangxi, then the Water Resources Allocation program is concluded.