Study On Forcasting And Control Of Distribution In Urban Gas In WISCO

Applying forecasting and controls theory, the author analyzes the statistics data of civil use of urban gas in the WISCO, establishes forecasting models for the daily and hourly gas consumption, and compares the model result with the real load. On this basis, the author maintains that it is necessary to adopt control measures and reasonably organize production. Moreover, the author puts forward a feasible plan to improve the current production technology, in order to meet users' needs and meanwhile reduce cost of production and increase enterprise profit.The thesis is divided for four parts.Chapter I describes the development history of forecasting and control theory and the current research situation of its application in allocation and consumption, and briefly touches upon relevant theories of forecasting the control and the system reliability.Chapter n analyzes the present urban gas civil use in WISCO, and points out that the major problems are miscalculation of fluctuating needs of users, rigid maximum production, excess reserve, and redundant pipe net transport. All these lead to the conclusion that urban gas which transcends the users needs has increased purification and transport cost.Chapter III tries to establish the mathematic model of daily gas consumption forecasting, focusing on the introduction of index smooth forecasting theory and determining the reasonable flatness constant. Applying the blur nerve network theory to establish hour consumption model and comparing it with the traditional method of forecasting, the author analyzes the most disadvantageous operation state, which lays the basis for future reasonable allocation. Also, the reliability theory is applied to probe into the current situation of urban gas civil use in WISCO. The author recalculates the reasonable stock capacity, analyzes present reserve ability, and proposes a new scheme to change the current production technology.The last Chapter finally concludes that on the basis of workload forecasting, adopting a more sensible control measure, allocating reasonably, reducing reserves, and decreasing production cost, annually the operation costs will be saved nearly 4.5 million yuan which in turn verify the effectiveness of forecasting and control theory in the field of urban gas allocation and transportation.