The Study On Measurement, Simulation And Return Optimizing Of Engineering Project's Investment Risk

This dissertation is supported by the item of "Research on Control of Investment andOptimal Model of Risk Return in Whole Process of Construction Project" ------soft scienceresearch of Ministry of Construction P.R.China.The engineering project is a complex, productive and consumptive process, which needs long time, much investment and high technology. There are a lot of uncertainty, random, and fuzzy factors during the process, which change with time elapsing, or spot transferring, or condition altering. The risks, which result from it, disturb the implementation and the success of engineering project. To ensure correctness and rationality of investment decision, the risk's recognition, judgment, evaluation and control have vital significance in theory and practice to realize the overall optimization, the whole design and managing idea of investment decision, to use the limited manpower, financial and material resources appropriately and also to reduce cost and increase benefit of the project.Based on my reference to research literature concerned with project risk management, project investment management, etc. and combined with the practical engineering construction, this dissertation mainly discusses such objects as investment risk differentiating, risk factor's measurement, risk simulation of investment scheme, information construction of project, risk return model of / distribution. This dissertation's main content includes: 1. It differentiated and analyzed the risk factors of project owner. 2. It used net price value to evaluate project risk, and economic risk, time, and financial risk was measured; it provided foundations to argue investment's feasibility and risk control. 3. It simulated future conditions of all kinds of schemes by simulating their economic indexes. Then we can ascertain the satisfying scheme with comparison. 4. It explained the content and principles of project information management and offered the thoughts to reduce lost due to lacking perfect information management. 5. It put forward risk return model of t distribution's investment project and perfected the system model of project's risk return.