Analysis On The Development Of Beijing Housing Industry By System Dynamics

During the development of the real estate market of our country, both government's policy-making and investors' investment decisions are generally purposeless, due to inadequate knowledge of its law. It not only causes lots of adverse influences on the socioeconomic situation, but also severely restricts the development of the whole real estate market. Research on the discipline of the real estate market has been a pop subject. The main target of this paper is tentatively and originally to make a quantitative research to forecast the development trend of Beijing housing industry, a systematically social and economic question, by use of the theory of system dynamics. First, the paper makes a detailed discussion about characteristics of real estate industry and approaches usually used methods to forecast the trend of its development. After that the paper analyses mutual influences and restriction relation of factors in Beijing housing system, explains the intrinsic feedback mechanism, sets up a system dynamics model, and finally quantificationally simulates the development trend of Beijing housing industry by computer. Meanwhile, the paper makes an emphasis on the change of the size and composition of Beijing population in the future. In the next part of the paper, the reliability of the model is analysed and demonstrated. The topic of Olympic Games' effect on the housing industry is also referred to in the paper. The conclusions include the anticipation of fast-growing housing industry in the next 20 years and the point that the chance of holding Olympic Games will drive the development of Beijing housing industry 5 to 8 years in advance.In the end, some policies are put forward and appraised by means of the model created in this paper, in order to offer some knowledge for government's policies and decision-making.