The Study On The Risk Warning Of Social Aging

Since the fifth census data shows that China has entered an aging society,Chinese aging process continues to accelerate and the level of aging continues to improve.Significant difference with western developed countries,the aging of population in China established on the basis of limited level of economic and social development and has the obvious feature of "old before getting rich",which making the aging of population in our country faced with more severe challenges.The rapid development of social aging is bound to have a certain impact on the healthy development of economic and society,therefore,it becomes a new world issue in twenty-first Century to prevent and deal with the aging risk.Tianjin,as an earlier city into the aging society,whose level of aging population ranks among the forefront of the country,so the impact to economic development,social security and social life is more significant.Therefore,it is of great practical significance and theoretical value to strengthen the early warning research of aging risk.Core content of this paper is to fully monitor,early warn and pre control the risks caused by population aging in professional social early warning theories and methods.First,establish a relatively perfect aging risk early warning index system in the method of Delphi based on the omnidirectional recognition to Tianjin aging risk,and assign weight to every index in the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process.Second,assess the warning level of aging level by the fuzzy comprehensive early warning model,and according to the early warning results to take appropriate countermeasures.Research shows that the early warning level of Tianjin aging risk is medium warming,and based on this result,this paper attempts to put forward the concept of establishing a perfect aging risk early warning mechanism from three aspects,including improving the external support system of aging risk early warning,establishing the internal support system of aging risk early warning and improving the monitoring mechanism of aging risk early warning.Thus get to the goal of avoiding accident in advance and trying to avoid or reduce the risk of population aging impact.