Analysis And Evaluation Of Tactics Logistics Emergency Support Security Risk Based On Fuzzy Theory

Although two big subjects have not changed in the current world peace and develops, some factors influencing national security still existed for example,the military conflict, the terrorism and so on.Some natural disasters sometimes occur like earthquake, the Tsunami, freeze, the significant epidemic situation and so on, and immediately influence the steady progression of societies and economical. Under this kind of situation, the possibility to carry out the emergency task increase greatly for the army, and it also set the new higher request to completed the commodity emergency safeguard for us.The foreign troops have the characteristic in the risk management, and the US military are mainly respectively to the procurement cost, the progress and the performance, the achievements and influence result of these three key indicator are taken as the main basis weighting risk size; The British armed forces adopting"the astute buying plan"achieves reduces the purchase risk the goal; The Australian armed forces carry on unification coordinated and the management to the entire armed forces purchase risk through the establishment national defense risk management system.Our army present logistics forces construction's overall condition is that campaign logistics forces is power, logistics forces of the strategic and the tactic is weak.The supplies must be the fast safeguard request ,because the military cargo demand is usually insufficient, the army resources are surplus, the emergency safeguard military cargo demand increases sharply and the limited tactic logistics forces adapt the consumption to be huge with difficulty. For the disaster situation which occurs suddenly, mostly the Provisional organization emergency safeguard, the safeguard mechanism many take the administrative order as the principal means. The allocation system is not perfect, the safeguard efficiency is low; The mixed transport structure is unreasonable, the mixed transport system skeleton network not yet forms; Overcoatability and the compatibility of the military rear service infrastructure and the place physical distribution are bad. Questions are that the command structure is insufficient consummation, the informationization is not high, the allocation way is not very nimble, and the safeguard is thought to wait for renewal and so on.The need of time is the develop direction of the things.Basic safeguard thought of tactics logistics emergency support is that by the dependence safeguard environment's visibility, the allocation speed and the precision, adopt positively respond the army demand change on own initiative, uses the information flow the unimpeded reduced system to the commodity class hindrance, thus reduces has between the demand and the response demand"the time difference", realizes the precise safeguard. In the concrete safeguard motion, the union operational mission, the safeguard environment, implement"the network type"in the relatively fixed region to the Combat unit the allocation safeguard; Destroys to the overland communication serious or the Combat unit which separates is implemented the long-distance reinforcement support; The most important safeguard way of tactics logistics emergency support is that the most front's point soldier army and thespecial troops carrying out the special assignment implement the safeguard followed mobile.Under the emergency safeguard's background, mainly is the following risks:1. information impeded risk. It mainly refers to the material logistics department to the market information, army's demand information, the commodity allocation situation and so on each kind of information to grasp not promptly, inaccurate, not comprehensive. Grasp to the demand information, will present not promptly the provisioning and bungle a military opportunity; Grasps, the easy purchase price to the market quotation excessively to be not comprehensively high, is cheated; Grasps inaccurate to the demand information, will buy the wrong goods, the mislay place, will create the waste.2. credit flaw risk. To seize the market,the individual supplier pledged completely firstly then requests the army pays in full the complete amount the advanced payment, by each reason for"the product is out of stock","the producer price already to enhance"and so on add-on funds or sells itself to make a profit a higher product, supplies goods slowly the speed, the pursue benefit maximization.3. management not strength risk. Because the commodity emergency safeguard development's temporary, system standard, support personnels' aspects and so on management have some cracks, easy to appear exploits power the accident caused by negligent the safety strip causes.4. the technology is short of the risk. It mainly refers to the material logistics personnel, because lacks corresponding training, state-of-art's limitation and the technical ability's insufficiency, in the time press, in the inspection not thin situation, presents in the misoperation or the choice, the policy-making fault, thus brings the improper loss and the risk for the emergency safeguard work.5. demand crowded risk. Under the emergency safeguard's special background, the army entering a war demand massive same variety commodity nearly during the same period of time. If duty carried out will be the emergency disaster relief, the disaster-stricken people joins massively will make the demand population to increase greatly, will certainly to cause the commodity to be scarce, price sharp advance, supply and demand contradictory prominent. The supplier will complete the provisioning in a short time with difficulty, and the buying hour delay will reduce to army's safeguard efficiency.6. divulges secrets divulges a secret's the risk. In the material logistics process, certain commercial information belonging to highly secretly (for example tender minimum acceptable bid, tender documents in certain time and so on), if revealed, will bring the heavy economic loss. Moreover, supplier, transportation business and so on, in serves for our army in the process, has some our army internal service information inevitably, that has increased the risk which without doubt divulges secrets divulges a secret.The risk Evaluation is the foundation of the risk analysis, the application layer upon layer weighted average appraisal model, to the material logistics organization's emergency purchase mechanism, the war reserve condition, the commodity ships synthesis support capabilities and so on ability, combat readiness facility integrity, operational readiness training level, own protection capability to carry on the comprehensive appraisal. Mainly adopts the static appraisal and the dynamic appraisal union method. The static appraisal including the system construction, organizes contents and so on leader, combat readiness level, purchase benefit, goods and material handling, facility equipment, support personnels military qualities. Now the army around ten months must organize the military officer quality authentication every year, by has the corresponding jurisdiction higher authority Department responsible for the work graduation to organize the military administration quality inspection in turn, inspects the organization to be strict, the merit rating is strict. To the logistics support personnel military qualities appraisal, it may refer to the military officer quality authentication the organization procedure and the inspection result carries on. The dynamic appraisal carries on the appraisal mainly for emergency raises ability, mobile delivery capacity, battlefield survival and essential initiative protection capability to the acquisition of materials and so on. In the ordinary circumstances, the dynamic appraisal weighting factor is bigger than the static appraisal weighting factor. In the universal appraisal's foundation, using the fuzzy number basic principle and the strict mathematical formula that expressed with the triangle fuzzy number the risk occurs the probability, provides the scientific basis for logistics support's correct decision-making. Through the many kinds of forms of troops drilling, the simulation situation carry on the safeguard training and so on, further consummates to the security risk analysis appraisal. At the same time, the tactical rear service emergency safeguard drilling, is emergency safeguards the anti-risk ability to the commodity the examination.In the new century new stage, the non-war military action becomes our army to fulfill the new historical mission day by day the important way, but the emergency safeguard is our army carrying out the non-act of war the important support. It has the important theory significance and the practical significance that explores the tactical rear service emergency safeguard security risk question and the trend of development positively, provides the scientific basis for the direction decision-making,...