| BackgroundThe quantity of the aging population in China is the largest in the world and the speed of the development of aging population is also the fastest. The development of aging in China is quite unbalance, viz. most of the aging population live in the rural area. Aging and senile lead to the quickly increasing number of the disable elderly. In 1996, OECD rasied a question of the need and the demand of daily life care when the moment of the elderly's disability coming.There are three forms of the elderly's care service:informal care, formal care and institutional care. Informal care is the major form of care service for the rural elderly in China. However, with the devolpment of the economy, the ability of the family care will weaken fastly. Nowadays, whether the informal care could meet the demand of the need of the elderly' daily life care service, how much the need would translate into the demand needs to study further.ObjectiveThe paper attempts to find out the willingness and the rule of the elderly's care service demand by measuring the need and demand of the elderly's daily life care service, so that it could be helpful for the social service providing department to allocate the care service resource. Specific objectives including:measuring the quantity, the contents and the time of need, demand and receipt, finding out the influencing factors of the need, demand and receipt and balancing the gap between them. Furthermore, we'll be forcasting the quantity of care service need and demand in a short and medium term.Method We use the data from a household survey in the project "Micro-insurance and daily life care service in Shandong province" and the 1‰sample of the national population in 2002 and 2007 from National Statistic Data-base. The strarified and cluster sampling method is used for the sample of the household survey. We selected 3 counties and collected 2068 individuals'related information, in which including 345 individuals who are the aged above 60 year-old. Descriptive, one-way statistical methods and logistic model are used to analyse the status of need, demand and receipt of the elderly's care service. Population-factors method are used to calculate the quantity of the population in 2002 and 2007, so that to forcasting the quantity of the need and demand in the next five year and ten year.ResultWe found it was not optimistic for the rural aged population's health.The prevalence of chronic diseases has reached 73.3%, the 80-year-old aged are poor in activities of daily living and the rate of need for care service reached 33.3%. Nowadays, the rural aged almost entirely depend on family care, the rate of social care receipt is 0. Security system for the aged in rural area is so scarce that 70% of the elderly have no pension. The average income in a month per household is only 321.49 yuan, which is far lower than the average level of 421 yuan. The scarcity of the care service resource and the security system is likely to become the obstacle of receiving the formal care service for the rural elderly.The rate of need for daily life care service is 10.1% in the sample area and the quantity of need for care service would be increased by 5.7% and 8.1% in the next 5 years and 10 years. The rate of need fot care service is higher in the sub-group of the elder aged, the serious chornic disease paitents, the person whose spouse died and low education. Age is the influencing factor of care service need. The probability of need for the aged above 80 year-old is 5.498 times more than the aged 60-65 year-old sub-group.The rank of the elderly's preference for the forms of care service is family care, the social care service provided by the government and social care service provided by other social organizations. The sub-groups of the younger elderly, the married, the higher education, the person living with the spounse, and whose major care giver is the spounse are prefer to choose the form of social care provided by the government than the other groups.The rate of demand of care service provided by the government freely and in home is 15.9%, whose influencing factors are age and the activity of daily life. The next five and ten year, the quantity of the demand will tend to be increasing and the increasing rate would be kept above 30%. There are 12 contents of demand for the care service provided by the government freely and in home, in which the demand rate of doing housework and accompanied for the medical treatment are the highest. Among the population demanding the care service provided by the government freely and in home,53.8%,19.2% and 26.9% need 1 to 5 hours,6 to 10 hours and above 10 hours per day to be cared respectively. In the case of mild and severe dysfunction, only 8.0% and 5.9% of the aged population are willing to pay for the care service provided by the other social organizations and the abiltiy to pay is 557.69 yuan and 379.47 yuan per month respectively. The elderly who have no willingness to pay are mainly for the adequate family care, and the financial difficulty is the secondary reason.84% of the aged are satisfied with the family care, and the rate of receiving family care is quite high:94.4% of the elderly could receive more than one contents of care service.82.4% of those who demand less number (1-6) of care service contents can receive the family care service. The rate of receiving the contents of doing housework and accompanied for the medical treatment are the first two higher. 63.3% of the aged population can receive above 10 hours per day to be cared. There are no significant differences among different sub-groups.The rate of need for care service provided by the government freely and in home is 5.8% higher than the rate of demand. The reason may be the prerequisite of "freely" and "in home" stimulate the demand of care service so that those who did not reach the disability standard and only feel bad in a short time produced the demand.58.2% of the aged demand the care service provided by the government could receive all the contents they need. Most of the contents the aged population need could be met the demand, it suggest that the elderly could receive better family care, however, there exists the part of care service need could not be met by the family and demand the fomal care to make up.Conclusion1)There exists a large quantity of potential demand of the daily life care service for the rural elderly and the quantity of need tent to be increasing in next ten years.2) The rural aged population mainly depend on the family care, and the scarce of social care resource and security system become the obstacle to receive the formal care.3) The rural elderly population are prefer to the form of care service provided by the government, compared with care service provided by the other social organization.4) There exists demand of formal care service to some extent, but the demand is difficulty to be released.Policy recommendation1) it is necessary to build the care service system for the rural aged population and the system needs the policy support.2) With the help of the strength of the lowest level organization developing the welfare enterprise, supporting and developing the rural community care service strongly.3) Building and standardizing the evaluation system to identify the target population and the content of care service.4) Encouraging social financing and guiding the rural aged to make use of the social resource.
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