| Based on Xinjiang population datas, administrative map and other data, using GIS, time series analysis, cluster analysis, geostatistics and other methods, this paper investigated and forecasted the time serial change, spatial distribution and structure of population in Xinjiang from 1949 to 2007 . The results showed:(1)In recent 60 years, total Xinjiang population rapidly increased 1661.85×10~4 persons. Each minority population continuously increased. The Uygur and Han separately increased 635.95×10~4 and 794.82×10~4,Russia and Tatar separately decreased 0.79×10~4 and 0.20×10~4. The agriculture population ratio decreased 28.32 percentage point, while non-agriculture population ratio increased from 15.00% of 1949 year to 43.32% of 2007year.(2)Birth rate and natural increase rate of Xinjiang population both had strong volatility, and the varying law basically were the same. Year 1949 to 1958, they were gradually increased, separately increased from 30.02‰, 9.02‰to 31.03‰and 18.03‰. After 1976, they both decreased, when they were 16.79‰and 11.78‰in 2007. The general trend of sex ratio was decreased, and was normal in the end. Its largest number was 123.23 in 1960, and the least number was 10~4.23 in 1980.(3)2011 to 2020, Xinjiang population would still increased year by year, and annual ncrease 323.3 thousand persons. In 2020, the population would pass 25000 thousand, 5000 thousand more than in 2005. The change of sex ratio was stable, from 105 in 2007 to 105 into 107 in 2011 to 2020. The minority population increased stablly, the average increased ratio was 1.56%. In 2020, it would high up to 15000 thousand, and would to ratio 75%. non-agriculture population ratio would also increased stablly, and its increased ratio was 15%, annual increased ratio was 1.5%. (4)Population density of North Xinjiang was 46.97 peaple per squre kilomiters, higher than Sourth Xinjiang (13.37) and East Xinjiang (6.37). The percentage of minority differed a lot among zones. In general, Sourth Xinjiang was higher than North and East Xinjiang. Minority percentage in Hetian was the highest of 96.54%, and was lowest in Changji of only 25.61%.County population both had positive and impositive spatial correlation, districted in fragments, showed strong spatial variability, but the spatial correlation was also intense. The spatial correlation of Uygur, Han and Kazak population were stong, whereas the positive spatial correlation weakened by distance, and the impositive spatial correlation enhanced. The Uygur self-correlation affecting spatial distance was enough to over the whole Xinjiang of 2110 km. In the mean while, the distance of Han and Kazak population were 34 km and 125 km.(5)The natural increase rate of Xinjiang population showed a law, that it was high in the South and was low in the North. Average value of North Xinjiang was 6.68‰, Much lower than South Xinjiang of 16.72‰. But the non-agricultural population percentage behaved the opposite state.Its Average value of low percentage zones was only 25.20%, yet this value could be 58.48% in the high percentage zones. The spatial self-correlation of natural increase rate gradually drooped. Moran'I of non-agricultural population both had positive and impositive values, when distance added. Its ratio of Structure to variance was 0, indicated that it did non have spatial self-correlation. |
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