Studies On The Market Risk About Personal Housing Consumption Loan

The market risk from personal housing consumption loan is a kind of macro systematic risk. When the market risk takes place, it mainly comes out through the credit risk which makes the credit risk occur more frequently than in a stable market. As a result, the bank can't control or cope with such a situation with the usual credit risk guarding system. To the bank, it is more difficult to anticipate the market risk.The market risk of personal housing consumption loan directly comes from the real estate market and financial markets. At the market value of the house mortgage is lower than the market value of the loan, namely the LTV is big in 1:0. if the loanee breaks the contract, the bank will still be subjected to the loss even it handles the mortgage house.A factor that affects the LTV is the fluctuation of the market house price. In our country the practice of the system to pay for the land to be used determined the trend of the house value. Suppose the time limit of the building to be used is in accordance with that of the land to be used, the value of the house property tends to be zero during the controlling time of the land. In this way, the author through analysis of the real case, such a conclusion can be drawn as aiming at the risk of the building prince declination, by lowering the loan ratio, the risk term by default and by reasonable breaking contract can be shortened.Under the condition that the market interest rates descend, the housing consumption loan of a fixed rate may face these two occurrences. One is that the loanee refuses to return the money and breaks the contract because the LTV rise to a certain extent .The other is that the loanee return the money he loaned by the price on the account because the market loan price is higher than the price of the account, it's said to be a kind of afresh margin by returning the loan ahead of the appointed time and selling the loan at the raised market price. This thesis analyzes choice of the loanee's refusing to return the loan and returning the loan ahead of the appointed time and the loanees's loss suffered from the rise ofinterest rate through real cases. The loaner that operates at fixed rate may not be able to get the additional income from the decline of the market interest rate just because the loanee breaks the contract by returning his loan ahead of time or refusing to return his loan. While the market interest rate raise, the loan will still go at the fixed rate; and the inevitable rising of the margin cost make the income less, or even make the interest rate upside down, which cause the bank suffer a great deal.With the increasing of interest rate, the adjustable-rate loan's monthly returning has been raised, but the loanee's income hasn't been raised synchronously ., As a result, it may make the debit's heavier, so that they can not pay the loan, and then they had no choice but to break the contact.Because the importance of personal housing consumption loan to the residents and the financing institution, and the harmfulness of market risk, the financing institution and government should value highly and cooperate closely. They should commence from guarding against the occurrence of the market risk and ease afterward the result both sides; According to the mechanism and the function process of market risk of the housing consumption loan, the general strategy includes: Distinguish the sensitivity and non- sensitivity loanee, put forward the different loan condition to reduce the default reaction of the loanee when the marker risk happens; keep a reasonable loan ratio and the repaying income comparison in case to enlarge the of buffer leeway of the influence of the market risk; build up credit system, raise the cost of default, reduce the active default stipulate the returning loan default fee in advance in order to reduce the returning in advance ;strength the calculate and guarding against to the interest rate risk ;not only need to use the general normal regulation measure of guarding against the interest rate risk ,but also need to aim at the characteristic of housing consumption loan ,adopt the measure early in the management of housing consumption loan; push forward the securities of housing consumption loan and dispersion the risk .In guarding against the problem of the housing consumption loan's market risk, the government's function is essential. According to the actuality of China,the nation should regard encouraging and promoting the development of personal housing consumption loan as its main contend in its housing policy .In this foundation, helping financial institution lower and guard against the risk becomes an important aspect of the government housing policy. Measures the government can adopt are as follows: raising the medium and low income resident's income and their ability to pay the loan for buying house; Strengthening the holdout ability to the market risk; Building the specialized organization for the real estate market and for monitoring the risk of the housing consumption loan; According to the easy changeable of the real estate market and the character of the market expectation influence, announcing the warning in time, controlling through the early warning ,and passing the guiding opinion ,guarding the financing institution to adopt the necessary measures; Supervising and controlling speculation—the main factor that leads to the motion of the real estate market; Building up the risk salvage system ;using the insurance and guarantee to scatter the housing consumption loan's risk is a widespread way of international community.