The Empirical Study On The Market Risk Of Personal Housing Mortgage Loan In China

In china economic development in previous years, people generally optimistic about the economic outlook, coupled with China’s large population, urbanization, huge demand for property, such people will be expected to make a lot of money to invest in real estate, in addition to the Mainland funds, but also attracted a large number of foreign investment. All these factors make the price pushed up too high in China, especially in domestic cities filled with huge bubble. At the same time banks personal housing mortgage loans because of the rigidity of demand and speculative estate needs to be developed, coupled with recent years, banks are facing fierce competition at home and abroad, China’s commercial banks began to blind expansion of consumer credit business as source of profit. Because the characteristics of the risk itself is uncertain, for the banking system, how to control risk is imperative. Banks to issue mortgage loans is the main risk arising from fluctuations in the market price and from changes in interest rates, and this is the definition of this market risk.Although the macroeconomics for market risk may not be a good period of default on the mortgage and banking business to great effect, but once the crisis on the entire banking system and even the security crisis in the global growth of the economy,08 The global financial crisis is a typical example, therefore, in theory, its study is necessary. Since the rise of late mortgage, and have not experienced a complete economic cycle, so far the market has not experienced a huge risk, commercial banks do not have experience in prevention. However, due to the potential risk of mortgage loans, we study the generation and analysis of market risks, trying hard to identify and control its commercial bank risk, reducing the risk of the banking system under pressure, which in today’s high prices, frequent changes in macroeconomic policies Age is particularly important, the study of great practical significance of market risk. Accordingly this paper, the risk of the mortgage market, mainly from the following major aspects to analyze, through the findings provide theoretical support for commercial banks and policy recommendations.This combination of personal housing mortgage loan market risk background and research themes and significance, began to explain China’s commercial banks are currently facing the impact of default risk and market risk control raised the need for, and then approaches and innovations from the research to illustrate this article steps of market risk and novelty. In this paper, historical data shows evidence of a separate breach of the relationship between variables that affect the mortgage market and the explanatory variables and default risk of the relationship between the explanatory variables. According to our empirical model to explain the applicability of the results, the last based on future price movements and the state policy toward interest rates commercial banks in the future may face the prospect of default changes. For the innovation of this paper pointed out that the use of options theory to explain rational mortgage default and empirical analysis of mortgage loans in our market risk and default interest rates and house prices is not obvious to explain the relationship between description and evaluation model and to adapt to conditions in this country the innovation.Combination of theoretical and empirical analysis of the full text, shows that our market risk of individual housing loans is gradually exposed the future, not only commercial banks to take measures, while the corresponding national government should also have a good understanding of this and effectively controlled, or may threatening the entire financial system security and social stability. Finally, this paper’s deficiencies and further research shows the limitations of data sources and the limitations of sample collection; may be the prediction and evaluation of options effect of an impact. As China’s commercial banks coupled with the housing mortgage business has not experienced a complete economic cycle, so the mortgage defaults in the prediction and evaluation of results and can not fully reflect the risk profile of commercial banks in China, with some limitations.