Research On The Financial Prosperity Monitoring And Early Warning System

Under the background of "new normal" of the economy and the adjustment of the industrial structure,the development of domestic industries are affected.Some of them even into a dilemma of development delay.At this time,as the “barometer” of the domestic industries,the role of finance is more and more important.Real estate industry is a pillar of the national economy,the importance of its healthy development to the healthy and steady development of the national economy,is becoming more and more obvious and receiving more and more attention.However,impacted by the macroeconomic and the effect of a series of strict real estate regulation policy since 2009,the real estate industry is faced with a slowing development growth,high inventory,profit margins "dilemma".In order to guide the development of the industries,this article introduce the financial prosperity into the industry finance monitoring and early warning.As a breakthrough,combined with the actual situation of the real estate industry,to research the role of industrial financial monitoring and early warning to the healthy development of the industries.To resist economic growth downward pressure,achieve the goal of sustaining economic steady growth gains more and more attention.In order to guide the development of the real estate industry correctly,to promote the steady and healthy development of national economy,on the basis of national housing sensitive index,we will do more effort on the study of the real estate financial market monitoring and early warning.Based on the theory of investment clock and financial prosperity monitoring,author tries to build the real estate financial prosperity monitoring and early warning model from two aspects,including the external aspect and the internal aspect.And then figure out the stage of financial prosperity of the real estate industry and its development trend.So that the real estate industry will be guided more targeted.(1)Constructing the financial prosperity monitoring and early warning index model of the real estate industry in our country.Through the analysis of the mechanism of real estate financial cycle,the financial prosperity monitoring and early warning index model will be constructed from external and internal two aspects.(2)Designing the financial prosperity monitoring and early warning index system of the real estate industry in our country.Based on the financial prosperity monitoring and early warning model of the real estate industry,this article build the index system from the external aspect of the macroscopic economy and connected industry and the internal aspect of the finance and development of the real estate industry.(3)Calculating the financial prosperity diffusion index and synthetic index of the real estate industry in our country.Based on time difference correlation analysis,entropy weight method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,this paper calculated the real estate industry's financial prosperity diffusion index and synthetic index,in order to realize the division of real estate financial business development stage and the monitoring and early warning its financial development.Innovative mainly reflects in:(1)The creative use of sentiment method in financial prosperity monitoring and early warning of industry make the Real-time and dynamic monitoring of the financial prosperity of the real estate industry comes true;(2)This paper fully consider the effect of the internal factors and external factors when designing the model and index system,and design the corresponding modules and indicators,so that impact on real estate financial business are fully reflected.