Study On The Purchase Tactics Of Thermal Power Enterprises Based On The Synthetical Forecast Analysis

Thermal power plays a decisive role in the production of the Chinese electric power. In China, more than 80% of electric power comes from thermal power stations. With the advancement of the electric power business' stepping into market, the thermal power enterprises will gradually depart from the entire planning system and participate in the market competition directly.In the thermal power enterprises, the purchase cost covers over 80% of the production cost. Facing different situations, the establishment of reasonable purchase tactics will directly concern the existence and development of the enterprises. Forecasting is the premise of drawing up tactics. We could collect the information and then make appropriate estimation for the future on the basis of that.This paper forecasts the situation of the electric power demand and the coal supply as well as the coal price and also makes a time sequence analysis of the power demand of specific regions, with the measure of quantitative analysis, according to the data of Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, State Power Information Network and Chinese Coal Industry Network as well as the historical data of specific enterprises in specific regions. Then processes the data by SPSS software. On the basis of the analysis, it sets up a purchase tactics model. This is one of originalites in the paper. In the different exterior environment, the enterprise can make a beneficial coal purchase decision conveniently by making use of this model. The method is simple but has practical value.The main measures applied in this paper are: linear regression analysis, smooth exponents, curve estimation, seasonal decomposition, grey systems model and direct observation, etc. The purpose of the paper is the study on the purchase tactics model of thermal power enterprises based on the synthetical forecast analysis.