Study On Economic Risk Of The Engineering Project Based On Random Network

As the industrialization of the society has been raised step bystep, study to the risk has been done deeply. In ten years, engineeringproject has developed rapidly in scale, complexity of technology,fund and resources. The risk of project magnified increasingly. Riskmanagement of engineering project has formed more perfect andsystemic theory system. But in the analysis of project risk, peoplealways consider the random risk variable of the fixed value. Theyalways consider the risk items of independent or think that therelated questions had been considered while appraising the items.These let the risk estimation simple, but are not in accord with thefact.Through comparing to the method of definite risk analysis, wefound that in the analysis to the economic risk, we can take advantageof the correlation of the project time limit and the cost. Riskappraising and evaluation is a new thinking by the random networkanalysis and Monte-Carlo simulation. Though the analysis to therandom network and Monte-Carlo simulation, we can deal with therandom and relationship of variable in the situation of the relation ofproject time limit and the cost. In this paper, firstly, we put forwardthe frame of the risk analysis. Secondly, we introduce the commonmethods of risk appraising and evaluation. Thirdly, we illustrate thefoundation method in the situation that project limit time and cost islimited, include random network, CPM of random network,Monte-Carlo simulation, and variable relationship in the analysis ofMonte-Carlo and take these into the economic risk evaluation of theengineering project. Finally, we test and verify the entire Mathismodule in the paper with precedent. And the result is satisfied.Risk appraising and evaluation of the engineering project is themost complicated systemic issue. The goal of this paper is to providethinking and frame in the economic risk analysis in the situation ofrelation of project time limit and provide reference for the policydecision, make it more scientific and reasonable.