Study Of Safety Statistics And Its Application In Fire Disaster Statistics

Accident statistical analysis is an important research in safety science, and some rules of safety science came from safety statistical research. With the rapid development of safety science in China, a growing number of serious consequence appear in the production and living, such as the types of accident became more complex, the number of accidents had a greater increase, the effect of accidents is more seriours. In recent years, a large number of safety researchers used many statistical methods to deal with safety issues in the safety system. Based on the existing related reseaches of safety statistics, and from the view of safety science, this paper tried to establish the safety statistics from the view of safety science. It would play an important role in improving the safety discipline system.Based on the collection and access to domestic and foreign literature, and the study of the present research and the existing problems in the safety statistics, the statistical definition of safety was put forward and the analysis of its meaning was deduced, such as the study of safety statistical methodology, application of safety statistics, and safety statistical index system. Then put forward an example to test the result of statistical methods used to solve the safety issue, and these methods including cluster analysis, sampling analysis, multiple linear regression analysis, and multiple linear regression prediction.The main research and conclusions in this paper are as follows:(1) It detailed analysis the types of safety analysis’s methods and the discipline system in safety science, and the development course of statistical methods used to safety system. It also pointed out the problems of safety statistical research, discussed the importance of establishing the major of safety statistics.(2)It defined safety statistics is a comprehensive application subject, which contained safety science, system science and statistics. The research object is the number and the relations of safety phenomenon. From the focus of statistical research, the statistical range of safety systems, the typical industry safety statistics, specific statistics objects and statistical indicators, these branches of safety statistics were built. Then some typical practice researches on the branches of industry safety statistics, casualty statistics, natural disasters statistics, occupational health and safety statistics, safety and economic statistics and social safety statistics were reviewed.(3)It defined safety statistical methodology is a comprehensive methodology subject, which contained safety science methodology and statistical methodology. The main contents of this subject are these statistical methods which used to the safety science research, such as safety statistical analyse methods, safety statistical predict methods and safety statistical decision methods.(4)It detailed analysis the application of three methods. The safety statistical analyse methods studied the propreties of these analysis methods, the safety statistical predict methods studied the propreties of these predict methods, and the safety statistical decision methods,studied the propreties of thes decision-making methods, which were applied to the safety system.(5)Safety statistical index system was an important element of this paper, and contained static index system and dynamic index system. The static index included absolute index and relative index, the absolute index was also named aggregate indicators, it reflected the total dimensions, the total level and the total amout of safe phenomena. The relative index was used to reflect the relative level or quality of safe phenomena. The dynamic index was used to analyse the casualties, therefore was also known as causalty statistical index.Accordint to the classification of safety statistical discipline, the statistical index system of safety feature contained industry safety statistical index, casualty statistical index, natural disasters statistical index, occupational health and safety statistical index, safety and economic statistical index and social safety statistical index.(6)To demonstate how to use these method to safety research, there put an example about the case of fire in2010in China. Based on5indexs, collected the stistical datas from31regions’fire situation, all regions would be divided into3categories through cluster analysis, then sampled and analysed regions from3categories, it could deduce the whole situation of fire through the result of sampling analysis. It used the mulitiple linear regression method to analyse the statiatical datas of fire from2007to2010, and forecasted the nationwide fire situation in2011by multiple linear regression predict method, to evaluate the result by calculated the forecase error and error rate.