Study On Economic And Social Development Of Shandong Province In The Context Of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction

The massive accumulation of greenhouse gases has given rise to serious unbalancedglobal ecology and destroyed ecological environment. As a result,“greenhouse gasemission reduction” has became a borderless global concern. To reduce greenhouse gasemissions, countries around the world have made commitments and put efforts to reduceCO2emission responding to the call of the United Nations Climate Change Conference. Inthe context of international emission reduction trends, to comply with China’s Greenhousegas emission reduction targets that "cut the CO2emissions per unit of GDP by40%-45%by2020from the year2005level", Shandong Province must take energy conservation,emissions reduction and low-carbon development as the only way to achieve futureeconomic and social development. With the accelerated process of industrialization,urbanization and consumption structure upgrade, energy consumption demand grows rigidlyand resource&environmental constraints are increasingly strengthened in Shandong.Especially in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, the emission reduction situation will bemore severe, and the emission reduction task will be even more arduous. In view of this,this paper is aimed to research how to reduce CO2emissions more powerfully and ensureeconomic growth and the improvement of people’s living standards in the process ofeconomic and social development in Shandong.On the basis of previous research results and from reality in Shandong, by using theintegration of qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper analyzes the current situationof GHG emission and the economic and social reasons of grim emission reduction situationin Shandong. Through the establishment of co-integration model and state space model, theco-integration relationship between carbon emissions and its main influencing factors,including GDP per capita, energy intensity, industrial structure, urbanization level andexternal trade, as well as the variable characteristics of each factor’s impact on carbon emissions are studied. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationshipbetween carbon emissions and its influencing factors, energy intensity and GDP per capitaare the two primary influences which could be the government’s priorities in the context ofgreenhouse gas emission reduction. Besides, the elastic coefficient of carbon emissions hasobvious volatility characteristics, indicating that emission reduction is influenced byinstitutional changes, policy adjustments and other factors to a large extent. In addition, CO2emissions of Shandong in2015are forecasted under different economic and socialdevelopment path through scenario analysis to provide some reference for choosing theright low-carbon economic and social development mode for Shandong. Finally, accordingto the above empirical results, combined with Shandong realities and socio-economicdevelopment law, constructive suggestions for social and economic development inShandong are put forward.