Prediction Of Coal Consumption And Solutions Of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

The thesis analyzes the history, trend and current situation of the social and economic development and coal consumption in China, makes a qualitative analysis about how all the parameters influence coal consumption through the selected social and economic parameter system influencing coal consumption, summarizes main factors that influence coal consumption by means of Correlation Analysis and Grey Relation Analysis, and explores the quantitative relation between coal consumption and social and economic development through Co-integration Analysis and Granger Test in econometrics. After analyzing the distinctiveness of coal consumption system and based upon the prediction theory, the paper takes Vector Error Correction Model (VEC) and Time Sequence (ARIMA) as the single prediction model to make weight combination and establish the prediction model of multiple regression combination, so that the following five-year coal consumption is predicted combined with the development trend of coal consumption industry in China.Furthermore, the main influencing factors for CO2 emission volume are summarized through Kaya Model and the analysis of CO2 emission condition, trend and its influencing factors across global main countries; the relation between coal production and consumption and CO2 and CH4 emission is analyzed, and the future CO2 and CH4 emission volume is estimated as well. Finally, the paper summarizes problems and challenges of greenhouse gas emission and climate change are faced with, and counter measures and policy suggestions are proposed on how to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission in the process of coal exploration and utilization.